valuations / NOK
NokiaNOK
📅 2026-05-24📐 Comps · P/E🎯 mediumsource: weilab/model-builder@2026-05-24
Implied share price
$10.50
$7.74 – $21.58
Reference price
$7.20
market at valuation time
Upside
↑ 45.8%
implied mid vs reference
假設 (assumptions)
wacc
—
cash_m
7,800
debt_m
4,100
currency
USD
peer_set
["ERIC","CSCO","HPE","COHR","MRVL"]
pe_applied
21.078
terminal_g
—
period_label
CY26E
revenue_cagr_5y
8.00%
shares_outstanding_m
5,742
ebitda_margin_terminal
15.00%
pe_peers
HPE
15.529
COHR
41.491
CSCO
16.642
ERIC
13.629
MRVL
45.133
eps_estimate
low
42.36%
mid
49.83%
high
57.30%
pe_peer_stats
telco_median
15.529
blended_median
16.642
ai_infra_median
43.312
blended_pe_weighting
rationale
Nokia FY25 revenue mix ~85% telco-eq (Mobile Networks 50% + Network Infra 25% + Tech 10%) vs ~15% AI/cloud (within CNS). Mgmt 27% AI+cloud CAGR through FY28 takes mix to ~25%. 80/20 weighting is the forward-discounted midpoint reflecting Q1 2026 +49% YoY AI+cloud beat and NVIDIA strategic stake.
telco_weight
80.00%
ai_infra_weight
20.00%
price_freshness_by_peer
HPE
fresh_2026-05-22
COHR
fresh_2026-05-22
CSCO
stale_estimate
ERIC
stale_estimate
MRVL
fresh_2026-05-22
forward_pe_reconciliation
spot
7.2
rationale
Top-down build (segment margins at FY25 actuals + ~$3.7B net cash interest income, 20% tax) lands at ~$0.50 CY26E. Market-implied EPS at consensus 15.0x is ~$0.48. Divergence +3.81% is within the ±20% rule threshold — anchor stays top-down. Narrow gap suggests consensus is appropriately reflecting Q1 2026 +49% AI+cloud momentum without front-running the raised 27% 2028 CAGR guide; that upside lives in the high EPS scenario.
divergence_pct
3.81
consensus_fwd_pe
15
top_down_eps_mid
49.83%
chosen_eps_source
top-down
market_implied_eps
48.00%
consensus_fwd_pe_source
Bloomberg BEst aggregator 2026-05 (n=21 analysts)
互動式 P/E 試算CY26E
implied = EPS × P/E。只在瀏覽器計算，不會更動 DB。
情境
Peer 一鍵套用
試算 Implied Share Price
$10.50
↑ 45.9% vs reference $7.20
拆解
EPS 0.50 × P/E 21.08 = $10.50
供應鏈錨點
revenue projection 校準依據；點 product/variant 連回 BOM 頁。
- / · AI-RAN baseband (downstream platform)99%(primary)
備註
## Notes (comps_pe — hybrid blend, top-down EPS anchored) ### Headline - Implied: **USD 7.74 / 10.50 / 21.58** (low / mid / high) - Reference: USD **7.20** → mid upside **+45.83%** - Blended Fwd P/E CY26E: **21.08x** (80% telco median 15.53x + 20% AI-infra median 43.31x) - NOK CY26E EPS: **$0.498** (top-down; consensus market-implied $0.48 at 15.0x; +3.81% divergence) ### Peer cohorts (Q1 2026 spot) | Cohort | Peer | Spot USD | Fwd P/E | Freshness | |---|---|---|---|---| | Telco-eq | ERIC | ~7.10 | 13.63x | stale (sourced from public IR) | | Telco-eq | CSCO | ~62.50 | 16.64x | stale (sourced from public IR) | | Telco-eq | HPE | 37.58 | 15.53x | fresh 2026-05-22 | | AI-infra | COHR | 377.57 | 41.49x | fresh 2026-05-22 | | AI-infra | MRVL | 196.33 | 45.13x | fresh 2026-05-22 | ### Why the asymmetric range - Low $7.74 = telco-only multiple (15.53x × $0.498) - High $21.58 = AI-infra-only multiple (43.31x × $0.498) - Mid $10.50 = 80/20 blended The width directly reflects the central investment debate: does Nokia earn an AI-infra re-rating from the NVDA stake, or does it stay anchored to telco-eq multiples? Today's market price ($7.20) implies "stays telco" + small discount; mid case implies partial re-rating. ### Why blend 80/20 (not 50/50) Nokia FY25 revenue is ~85% telco-eq. Mgmt's raised 27% AI+cloud CAGR through FY28 takes the AI-mix to ~25%. 80/20 is the forward midpoint between today's mix and FY28 mix. A 60/40 weighting would push mid implied to ~$13.70 (+90% upside). ### Anchor — thin Single BOM row: `rubin/nvl72 / AI-RAN baseband (downstream platform)`, which is a downstream-application annotation, NOT a per-rack physical BOM item. Nokia AI-RAN revenue does NOT scale with raw Rubin GPU shipments — it scales with telco adoption of NVIDIA Arc Aerial RAN Computer, which is a separate go-to-market motion. Confidence kept at `medium` not `high` because of this thin anchor. ### Caveats - NOK spot $7.20 is sub-agent estimate (NOK not yet in weilab `stock_quotes`); run `pnpm stocks:refresh` post-this to populate and confirm. - ERIC / CSCO Fwd P/E are sub-agent estimates from public IR (not from weilab fresh quotes); fresh peer prices would tighten the band. - AI-RAN commercial pricing model unproven — T-Mobile / BT / Vodafone in functional-test phase, not commercial deployment yet. The +49% Q1 2026 AI+cloud growth is mostly data-center networking and Azure-related, NOT AI-RAN yet. - NVDA can sell its 2.90% stake at any time; "NVDA-backed" is brand signal not contractual commitment.