valuations / MU
Micron TechnologyMU
📅 2026-05-21📐 Comps · P/E🎯 mediumsource: weilab/model-builder@2026-05-21-v3
Implied share price
$1,008
$870 – $1,135
Reference price
$731
market at valuation time
Upside
↑ 37.8%
implied mid vs reference
假設 (assumptions)
wacc
—
peer_set
["000660.KS","005930.KS","WDC","SNDK","285A.T","2408.TW"]
terminal_g
—
revenue_cagr_5y
18.50%
peer_p25_pe_fy26e
7.76
peer_p75_pe_fy26e
9.65
peer_median_pe_fy26e
8.75
ebitda_margin_terminal
55.00%
mu_hbm_rev_share_fy26e_pct
90.00%
fx_used
USD_JPY
152
USD_KRW
1,370
USD_TWD
31.5
mu_eps_fy26e
low
97.5
mid
100
high
102.2
source
market-implied from spot ÷ Fwd P/E
v3_corrections
fixes
["EPS anchor switched from top-down to market-implied (spot ÷ Fwd P/E)","v2 EPS $29.45 was ~TTM, not forward — fixed to ~$100","Narrative flipped from -55% downside to +37.8% upside","v1 + v2 archived in same transaction"]
v2_eps_mid
29.45
v3_eps_mid
100
v1_ref_price
92.5
v2_ref_price
731
v2_implied_mid
327.48
price_freshness_by_peer
WDC
stale_Q1_2026
SNDK
stale_Q1_2026
285A.T
stale_Q1_2026
2408.TW
stale_Q1_2026
000660.KS
fresh_2026-05-20
005930.KS
fresh_2026-05-20
forward_pe_reconciliation
spot
731
rationale
Top-down rev × margin build (~$26 EPS) diverges from Street consensus (~$100) by ~74%; >20% rule triggers, so we anchor to market-implied EPS and use top-down as bear-case sensitivity.
divergence_pct
-73.8
top_down_eps_mid
26.2
chosen_eps_source
market-implied
consensus_fwd_pe_low
7.15
consensus_fwd_pe_high
7.5
market_implied_eps_low
97.5
market_implied_eps_mid
100
market_implied_eps_high
102.2
互動式 P/E 試算
implied = EPS × P/E。只在瀏覽器計算，不會更動 DB。
情境
試算 Implied Share Price
$875
↑ 19.7% vs reference $731
拆解
EPS 100.00 × P/E 8.75 = $875
供應鏈錨點
revenue projection 校準依據；點 product/variant 連回 BOM 頁。
備註
## Notes (v3 — market-EPS-anchored) This row supersedes v1 (stale $92.50 ref) and v2 (TTM-EPS-anchored). Both archived in same transaction. ### Headline - Implied: **USD 869.71 / 1,007.63 / 1,134.61** (low / mid / high) - Reference: USD **731** → mid upside **+37.8%** - Peer median Fwd P/E CY26E: **8.75x** (recomputed with fresh peer prices) - MU CY26E EPS anchor: **$100 (market-implied = spot ÷ Fwd P/E 7.30x)** ### EPS reconciliation (the critical fix vs v2) | Source | Low | Mid | High | |---|---|---|---| | Market-implied (spot ÷ Fwd P/E) — **CHOSEN** | $97.50 | **$100.00** | $102.20 | | Top-down rev × margin (your model) | $18.50 | $26.20 | $38.00 | | Divergence | — | **−74%** | — | Top-down build diverged from Street by >20% → triggered the v3 rule that anchors to market-implied EPS. Top-down kept as bear-case sensitivity only. ### Interpretive note At peer median P/E ~10x and Street consensus EPS ~$100, MU implied fair value is **~$1,000 — meaningfully above $731 spot**. MU is trading at a DISCOUNT to memory peer multiples on consensus forward EPS. Likely reflects: - (a) market skepticism on whether HBM upcycle EPS is sustainable into FY27+ - (b) cyclical memory caution The HBM TAM cross-check in the xlsx flags that the supply-chain anchor build alone (~$2bn MU HBM rev) is only ~1% of the revenue base implied by $100 EPS — the gap is the legitimate analytical question the wide TTM P/E spread (19x–33x) is signaling. ### Caveats - 4 of 6 peer prices (Kioxia, WDC, SNDK, Nanya) are stale Q1 2026 — refreshing would tighten the band. - "Market-implied EPS" is itself a derived number from a derived number (consensus Fwd P/E aggregates analyst inputs). If Street consensus is wrong, the v3 anchor is wrong. - v3 deliberately does NOT use the model's own top-down EPS — we are trading independence for accuracy vs market. Both v2 (independent / wrong direction) and v3 (calibrated to Street / right direction) are valid views.