valuations / 2330.TW

台積電2330.TW

📅 2026-05-24📐 Comps · EV/EBITDA🎯 mediumsource: weilab/model-builder@2026-05-24

Implied share price

NT$1,850

NT$1,343 – NT$2,375

Reference price

NT$2,255

market at valuation time

Upside

↓ 18.0%

implied mid vs reference

假設 (assumptions)

wacc

9.00%

cash_m

2,134,000

debt_m

1,018,000

currency

TWD

eps_path

[{"eps":{"low":60,"mid":70.4,"high":79},"year":"CY26E"},{"eps":{"low":73,"mid":85.8,"high":96},"year":"CY27E"},{"eps":{"low":81,"mid":95.7,"high":107},"year":"CY28E"}]

pe_applied

pe_terminal

period_label

CY26E

cost_of_equity

9.00%

revenue_cagr_5y

21.50%

ev_ebitda_applied

shares_outstanding_m

25,930

ebitda_margin_terminal

68.00%

ebitda_estimate

low

2,810,215

mid

3,123,483

high

3,359,581

ev_ebitda_peers

GFS

9.6

0981.HK

13.7

2303.TW

9.2

005930.KS

9.6

ev_ebitda_peer_stats

p25

9.5

p75

12.7

median

9.6

互動式 EV/EBITDA 試算CY26E

EV = EBITDA × multiple；equity = EV − net debt；implied = equity / shares。只在瀏覽器計算，不會更動 DB。

EBITDA (M)

情境

EV/EBITDA multiple

Peer 一鍵套用

流通股數 (M)

進階：現金 / 負債（net debt 拆解）

現金 (M)

負債 (M)

試算 Implied Share Price

NT$1,850

↓ 18.0% vs reference NT$2,255

企業價值 EV (M)

46,852,245

Net debt (M)

-1,116,000

權益價值 (M)

47,968,245

/ shares

NT$1,850

供應鏈錨點

revenue projection 校準依據；點 product/variant 連回 BOM 頁。

/ · Rubin GPU die + CoWoS-L99%
/ · Rubin CPX die + CoWoS-L99%
/ · Rubin Ultra die + CoWoS-L99%
/ · MI450 GPU die + CoWoS-L99%
/ · MI455x GPU die + CoWoS-L99%
/ · TPU v7p compute + CoWoS-S99%
/ · TPU v8i inference + CoWoS-S99%
/ · TPU v8t training + CoWoS-L99%

備註

Foundry-peer EV/EBITDA comps. Peer set: UMC (2303.TW, ~9.2x), GFS (~9.6x), SMIC (0981.HK, ~13.7x), Samsung (005930.KS, ~9.6x conglomerate-level — foundry slice ~22x but consolidated as ~10x; kept with caveat). Intel excluded (IFS loss-making). Ex-Samsung clean median 9.6x; applied **15.0x** to reflect TSMC quasi-monopoly on leading-edge logic + CoWoS rationing — well above peer median, in line with market-implied multiple at spot TWD 2,255.

CY26E EBITDA mid TWD 3,123B (~USD 95B), built top-down: revenue CAGR FY25→FY28 ≈ 21.5% on HPC mix expansion (51% → 70%) anchored to weilab supply-chain forecasts for Rubin nvl72/nvl144-cpx/nvl576, AMD MI450/MI455x, Google TPU v7p/v8i/v8t. EBITDA margin 67–68.5%, flattening on Fab 21 (Arizona) + Kumamoto D&A drag.

Headline implied MID = TWD 1,850 → **-18% vs spot 2,255**. Honest comps read for a quasi-monopoly: any reasonable foundry-peer multiple under-prices TSMC. HIGH case (18x × high EBITDA) ≈ TWD 2,375 covers spot. Pair this with the same-day DCF if generated.

xlsx: data/valuations/2026-05-24-2330-tw-2.xlsx (local-only, not in git). Peer spots: Samsung 005930.KS fresh from weilab stock_quotes 2026-05-22; UMC/GFS/SMIC flagged stale_estimate.