valuations / 2454.TW

聯發科2454.TW

📅 2026-05-24📐 Comps · P/E🎯 highsource: weilab/model-builder@2026-05-24

Implied share price

NT$4,000

NT$2,304 – NT$5,000

Reference price

NT$3,860

market at valuation time

Upside

↑ 3.6%

implied mid vs reference

假設 (assumptions)

cash_m

273,000

debt_m

18,500

currency

TWD

eps_path

[{"eps":{"low":78.34,"mid":92.16,"high":108.75},"year":"CY26E"},{"eps":{"low":84.96,"mid":108.92,"high":141.6},"year":"CY27E"},{"eps":{"low":113.03,"mid":156.99,"high":227.64},"year":"CY28E"}]

pe_applied

pe_terminal

period_label

CY26E

shares_outstanding_m

1,603

tpu_royalty_assumption_pct

10.00%

tpu_royalty_rationale

10% of die ASP — midpoint of typical design-partner royalty band (5-15%). v8t is backend_design (lower end of band, ~7-8%); v8i is design_owner (higher end, ~12-14%); blended ~10%. Applied uniformly across variants for simplicity; sensitivity to this single lever is high (linear flow-through to TPU rev contribution).

pe_peers

STM

13.4

AVGO

46.27

MRVL

25.64

NXPI

15.66

QCOM

14.98

3034.TW

11.65

eps_estimate

low

78.34

mid

92.16

high

108.75

pe_peer_stats

p25

12.09

p75

23.14

median

15.32

forward_pe_reconciliation

spot

3,860

rationale

Divergence >20% triggers reconciliation, but top-down is retained because consensus already prices CY27+ TPU royalty contribution into the CY26 multiple — per the BOM, MediaTek's TPU revenue is zero in CY26 (first v8t/v8i revenue is 2027 H2). Market is paying for optionality, not earnings; framework values fundamentals.

divergence_pct

-33.15

consensus_fwd_pe

top_down_eps_mid

92.16

chosen_eps_source

top-down

market_implied_eps

137.86

consensus_fwd_pe_source

FactSet consensus CY26E sell-side mean (stale_estimate; not Q1/Q2 2026 verified)

互動式 P/E 試算CY26E

implied = EPS × P/E。只在瀏覽器計算，不會更動 DB。

EPS (CY26E)

情境

P/E multiple

Peer 一鍵套用

試算 Implied Share Price

NT$4,608

↑ 19.4% vs reference NT$3,860

拆解

EPS 92.16 × P/E 50.00 = NT$4,608

未來 3 年 forward 價格目標

Comps · P/E

implied = EPS × P/E；只在瀏覽器計算，不會更動 DB。

年期	EPS (mid)	P/E	Implied (raw)	Upside vs ref
CY26E	92.16 78.34 – 108.75	50.00	NT$4,608 NT$3,917 – NT$5,438	↑ 19.4%
CY27E	108.92 84.96 – 141.60	42.50(i)	NT$4,629 NT$3,611 – NT$6,018	↑ 19.9%
CY28E	156.99 113.03 – 227.64	35.00	NT$5,495 NT$3,956 – NT$7,967	↑ 42.3%

P/E 採 mean-reversion：FY+1 用 sub-agent 套用值、終點收斂到 peer median / pe_terminal；中間年份線性內插（標 (i)）。

供應鏈錨點

revenue projection 校準依據；點 product/variant 連回 BOM 頁。

/ · Compute die99%(design_owner)
/ · I/O die99%(backend_design)
/ · Compute die (TBD)99%(design_partner)

備註

[audit 2026-05-24] drivers edited by aa9440307@gmail.com: pe_applied 40→50, pe_terminal 25→35

## Notes (comps_pe — peer-median anchor, top-down EPS retained, multi-year path)

### Headline
- Implied: **TWD 948 / 1,410 / 2,512** (low / mid / high)
- Reference: TWD **3,860** → mid upside **-63.5%** (comps framework signals overvaluation)
- Peer median Fwd P/E CY26E: **15.32x** (n=6 cohort; range 11.65x–46.27x)
- 2454.TW CY26E EPS: **TWD 92.16** (top-down; market-implied at consensus 28x ≈ TWD 138; divergence -33.15% — top-down retained because BOM places TPU rev in CY27+, not CY26)

### Peer cohort (selected for end-market overlap)
| Peer    | Theme                          | Spot       | Fwd P/E CY26E |
|---------|--------------------------------|------------|---------------|
| QCOM    | handset SoC + modem            | USD 180.50 | 14.98x        |
| AVGO    | custom ASIC / hyperscaler      | USD 414.14 | 46.27x        |
| MRVL    | custom ASIC / hyperscaler      | USD  78.20 | 25.64x        |
| NXPI    | auto + industrial broadline    | USD 232.50 | 15.66x        |
| 3034.TW | Taiwan fabless (Novatek)       | TWD 545    | 11.65x        |
| STM     | auto + industrial broadline    | USD  38.20 | 13.40x        |

### Multi-year forward (mean-reversion P/E: FY+1=15.32, FY+3=15.32 → flat at median)
| Year   | EPS mid | P/E    | Implied raw mid |
|--------|---------|--------|-----------------|
| CY26E  |  92.16  | 15.32x | TWD 1,412       |
| CY27E  | 108.92  | 15.32x | TWD 1,669       |
| CY28E  | 156.99  | 15.32x | TWD 2,405       |

Note: `pe_terminal` deliberately = peer median (not premium) because by CY28E the TPU contribution is *in the EPS numerator*; applying a TPU premium to the multiple would double-count. To see the upside case, swap pe_terminal for P75 (23.14x) in the calculator → CY28E implied ≈ TWD 3,632, finally approaching spot.

### TPU royalty assumption (the dominant lever)
Modeled at 10% of die ASP as design-partner royalty. This is the midpoint of a 5–15% band:
- 5–8% for pure backend physical-design service (v8t I/O die)
- 10–12% for full architectural co-design (v8i Compute die)
- 12–15% for full design ownership with IP licensing (none of MediaTek's current TPU work meets this bar)

Sensitivity: at 5% royalty, CY28 TPU rev contribution halves to ~TWD 181B; at 15%, ~TWD 544B. Single-lever sensitivity, linear flow-through. A dedicated TPU royalty sensitivity tab should be built before publishing any external target.

### EPS path drivers
- **CY26E (TWD 92)**: pure handset SoC + WiFi/connectivity + auto/IoT; TPU = $0 per BOM.
- **CY27E (TWD 109, +18%)**: ~½ handset/connectivity growth, ~½ first-year TPU royalty (~TWD 73B attributable rev).
- **CY28E (TWD 157, +44%)**: dominated by v8t I/O die ramp 0.5M → 7M units (~TWD 363B attributable rev). Lowest confidence in the path — both the 7M unit forecast and 10% royalty are "low confidence" per BOM.

### Why the asymmetric range
- Low (TWD 948) = P25 multiple × low EPS — comp-only floor with conservative ramp
- Mid (TWD 1,410) = peer median × top-down EPS — central comp framework signal
- High (TWD 2,512) = P75 multiple × high EPS — best case under AVGO-adjacent re-rating
The full -64% gap vs spot reflects that **the market is paying for AVGO-like TPU optionality, not earnings**. Reader who believes that premium is justified should re-anchor headline to market-implied EPS (~TWD 138) at median multiple → mid implied lifts to ~TWD 2,114, still -45% vs spot.

### Caveats
- 2454.TW spot TWD 3,860 sourced from weilab stock_quotes (fresh 2026-05-22). ✓
- Peer Fwd P/E values for QCOM / NXPI / STM / 3034.TW are sub-agent estimates from public IR (not fresh weilab quotes for peers); fresh peer prices would tighten the band slightly but not change the framework signal.
- Consensus Fwd P/E (28x) is FactSet-style estimate, marked `stale_estimate` — Q1/Q2 2026 verified consensus would sharpen the reconciliation block.
- TPU "ASP" anchors are Google capex per chip, not MediaTek revenue. Royalty assumption (10%) is the dominant single lever.
- AVGO (46.27x) is a clear cohort outlier; its inclusion widens P75 to 23x, which is appropriate given MediaTek's structural TPU exposure deserves *some* AVGO-adjacent premium — but median (15.32x) excluding AVGO would only drop to ~15.0x, framework conclusion unchanged.