weilab — supply-chain research lab

(primary)

假設 (assumptions)

wacc

—

cash_m

43,210

debt_m

10,270

currency

USD

peer_set

["AVGO","AMD","MRVL","INTC","TSM","ARM"]

pe_applied

38.814

terminal_g

—

period_label

CY26E

revenue_cagr_5y

30.00%

shares_outstanding_m

24,400

ebitda_margin_terminal

67.00%

pe_peers

AMD

50.27

ARM

85.714

TSM

22.48

AVGO

34.948

INTC

30.339

MRVL

42.68

eps_estimate

low

5.963

mid

6.626

high

7.289

pe_peer_stats

p25

33.796

p75

44.578

median

38.814

price_freshness_by_peer

AMD

fresh_2026-05-22

ARM

stale_estimate

TSM

stale_estimate

AVGO

fresh_2026-05-22

INTC

fresh_2026-05-22

MRVL

fresh_2026-05-22

forward_pe_reconciliation

spot

215.33

rationale

Top-down diverged -31.6% vs market (exceeds 20% threshold). Rubin volumes/ASPs are rumor-grade per weilab shipment_forecasts (low confidence); consensus Fwd P/E aggregates IR-validated sell-side models. Anchored headline to market-implied EPS to avoid the MU v2 TTM-vs-Fwd conflation error. Top-down build retained as sensitivity input in the EPS Build tab.

divergence_pct

-31.6

consensus_fwd_pe

32.5

top_down_eps_mid

4.535

chosen_eps_source

market-implied

market_implied_eps

6.626

consensus_fwd_pe_source

Bloomberg BEst aggregate 2026-05-22 — NVDA CY26E sell-side median 32.5x (range 28-38x)

供應鏈錨點

revenue projection 校準依據；點 product/variant 連回 BOM 頁。

/ · Rubin GPU die99%(primary)
/ · Vera CPU die99%(primary)
/ · NVLink-6 switch tray99%(primary)
/ · ConnectX-9 / BlueField NIC99%(primary)
/ · Rubin CPX GPU die99%(primary)
/ · Vera CPU die99%(primary)
/ · NVLink-6 switch tray99%(primary)
/ · ConnectX-9 NIC99%(primary)
/ · Rubin Ultra GPU die99%(primary)
/ · Vera CPU die99%

備註

## Notes (comps_pe — market-EPS-anchored) ### Headline - Implied: **USD 201.51 / 257.18 / 324.93** (low / mid / high) - Reference: USD **215.33** → mid upside **+19.4%** - Peer median Fwd P/E CY26E: **38.81x** (AVGO 34.9, AMD 50.3, MRVL 42.7, INTC 30.3) - NVDA CY26E EPS anchor: **$6.63 (market-implied = spot ÷ consensus Fwd P/E 32.5x)** ### EPS reconciliation (critical step per project rule) | Source | Value (CY26E) | |---|---| | Market-implied (215.33 ÷ 32.5) — **CHOSEN** | **$6.63** | | Top-down rev × margin (Rubin platform build) | $4.54 | | Divergence | **−31.6%** | Top-down diverged > ±20% → triggered the MU-precedent rule that anchors to market-implied EPS. Top-down retained as sensitivity-only input. Rubin volumes are rumor/low confidence per `shipment_forecasts.confidence`, so the bottom-up understatement is expected; Street numbers fold in IR-validated guidance. ### Interpretation NVDA trades at **32.5x consensus** vs **38.8x peer median** — i.e. at a ~16% discount to its AI-semis peer group despite owning the entire Rubin platform stack (GPU/CPU/NIC/NVLink primary 99% across all three variants). Closing that gap drives the +19.4% mid upside. ### Caveats - Peer freshness: AVGO/AMD/MRVL/INTC fresh 2026-05-22 from weilab DB. TSM/ARM are stale_estimate (not in `stock_quotes`). - Consensus Fwd P/E 32.5x is a Bloomberg BEst aggregate; if Street is wrong, the market-implied anchor is wrong. - Rubin shipment forecasts are rumor/low confidence — top-down upside is meaningful only if those volumes materialise. - Peer set is AI-accelerator focused; broader semi inclusion (TXN, QCOM) would compress the multiple toward 25-30x.