valuation / 2330.TW
2026-05-24 · Comps · EV/EBITDA · medium · source: weilab/model-builder@2026-05-24
| wacc | 9.00% |
| cash_m | 2,134,000 |
| debt_m | 1,018,000 |
| currency | TWD |
| eps_path | [{"eps":{"low":60,"mid":70.4,"high":79},"year":"CY26E"},{"eps":{"low":73,"mid":85.8,"high":96},"year":"CY27E"},{"eps":{"low":81,"mid":95.7,"high":107},"year":"CY28E"}] |
| pe_applied | 22 |
| pe_terminal | 17 |
| period_label | CY26E |
| cost_of_equity | 9.00% |
| ebitda_estimate.low | 2,810,215 |
| ebitda_estimate.mid | 3,123,483 |
| ebitda_estimate.high | 3,359,581 |
| ev_ebitda_peers.GFS | 9.6 |
| ev_ebitda_peers.0981.HK | 13.7 |
| ev_ebitda_peers.2303.TW | 9.2 |
| ev_ebitda_peers.005930.KS | 9.6 |
| revenue_cagr_5y | 21.50% |
| ev_ebitda_applied | 15 |
| ev_ebitda_peer_stats.p25 | 9.5 |
| ev_ebitda_peer_stats.p75 | 12.7 |
| ev_ebitda_peer_stats.median | 9.6 |
| shares_outstanding_m | 25,930 |
| ebitda_margin_terminal | 68.00% |
Foundry-peer EV/EBITDA comps. Peer set: UMC (2303.TW, ~9.2x), GFS (~9.6x), SMIC (0981.HK, ~13.7x), Samsung (005930.KS, ~9.6x conglomerate-level — foundry slice ~22x but consolidated as ~10x; kept with caveat). Intel excluded (IFS loss-making). Ex-Samsung clean median 9.6x; applied **15.0x** to reflect TSMC quasi-monopoly on leading-edge logic + CoWoS rationing — well above peer median, in line with market-implied multiple at spot TWD 2,255. CY26E EBITDA mid TWD 3,123B (~USD 95B), built top-down: revenue CAGR FY25→FY28 ≈ 21.5% on HPC mix expansion (51% → 70%) anchored to weilab supply-chain forecasts for Rubin nvl72/nvl144-cpx/nvl576, AMD MI450/MI455x, Google TPU v7p/v8i/v8t. EBITDA margin 67–68.5%, flattening on Fab 21 (Arizona) + Kumamoto D&A drag. Headline implied MID = TWD 1,850 → **-18% vs spot 2,255**. Honest comps read for a quasi-monopoly: any reasonable foundry-peer multiple under-prices TSMC. HIGH case (18x × high EBITDA) ≈ TWD 2,375 covers spot. Pair this with the same-day DCF if generated. xlsx: data/valuations/2026-05-24-2330-tw-2.xlsx (local-only, not in git). Peer spots: Samsung 005930.KS fresh from weilab stock_quotes 2026-05-22; UMC/GFS/SMIC flagged stale_estimate.
