valuation / AMD
2026-05-14 · DCF · low · source: weilab/model-builder@2026-05-14
| wacc | 13.19% |
| cash_m | 5,100 |
| debt_m | 1,720 |
| terminal_g | 3.00% |
| wacc_build.ke | 13.38% |
| wacc_build.erp | 5.50% |
| wacc_build.beta | 1.65 |
| wacc_build.risk_free | 4.30% |
| wacc_build.debt_weight | 2.00% |
| wacc_build.kd_after_tax | 5.50% |
| wacc_build.equity_weight | 98.00% |
| revenue_cagr_5y | 19.72% |
| tax_rate_terminal | 15.00% |
| shares_outstanding_m | 1,640 |
| segments_fy2024_usd_m.client | 7,054 |
| segments_fy2024_usd_m.gaming | 2,595 |
| segments_fy2024_usd_m.embedded | 3,557 |
| segments_fy2024_usd_m.data_center | 12,582 |
| ebitda_margin_terminal | 38.50% |
AMD full-company DCF using AMD 10-K FY2024 + Q1 2025 results, with MI400-series anchors applied as hard overrides on Data Center revenue in 2026 H2 (MI450: 50k units × $22k = ~$1.10B) and 2027 H1 (MI455X: 15k × $28k = ~$0.42B). Both anchors are flagged rumor-tier in the weilab DB. Base WACC ≈ 13.19% (Ke from CAPM rf 4.30% + β 1.65 × ERP 5.5%; debt weight only 2%). Terminal g = 3.0%. The model projects 5y revenue CAGR ~20% with Data Center leading (12.6B → ~47B by 2030), margin expansion from 49% → 59% gross and EBITDA margin landing ~38.5% terminal. Implied EV ~$157B, equity ~$160B, base implied share price $97.56. This is materially below the $449.44 reference, implying ~78% downside. The gap reflects (a) consensus pricing in 50%+ DC CAGR for many more years than our 5y window, and (b) WACC penalty from β 1.65. Confidence is low — the rumor-tier MI400 anchors only swing the model by ~$3–5/share, so the gap is structural (margin trajectory + terminal multiple), not anchor-driven. Sensitivity shows even the bullish corner (WACC 11.19%, g 4.0%) only reaches $135.97.
