valuation / NVDA
2026-05-24 · Comps · P/E · medium · source: weilab/model-builder@2026-05-24
| wacc | — |
| cash_m | 43,210 |
| debt_m | 10,270 |
| currency | USD |
| pe_peers.AMD | 50.27 |
| pe_peers.ARM | 85.714 |
| pe_peers.TSM | 22.48 |
| pe_peers.AVGO | 34.948 |
| pe_peers.INTC | 30.339 |
| pe_peers.MRVL | 42.68 |
| peer_set | ["AVGO","AMD","MRVL","INTC","TSM","ARM"] |
| pe_applied | 38.814 |
| terminal_g | — |
| eps_estimate.low | 5.963 |
| eps_estimate.mid | 6.626 |
| eps_estimate.high | 7.289 |
| period_label | CY26E |
| pe_peer_stats.p25 | 33.796 |
| pe_peer_stats.p75 | 44.578 |
| pe_peer_stats.median | 38.814 |
| revenue_cagr_5y | 30.00% |
| shares_outstanding_m | 24,400 |
| ebitda_margin_terminal | 67.00% |
| price_freshness_by_peer.AMD | fresh_2026-05-22 |
| price_freshness_by_peer.ARM | stale_estimate |
| price_freshness_by_peer.TSM | stale_estimate |
| price_freshness_by_peer.AVGO | fresh_2026-05-22 |
| price_freshness_by_peer.INTC | fresh_2026-05-22 |
| price_freshness_by_peer.MRVL | fresh_2026-05-22 |
| forward_pe_reconciliation.spot | 215.33 |
| forward_pe_reconciliation.rationale | Top-down diverged -31.6% vs market (exceeds 20% threshold). Rubin volumes/ASPs are rumor-grade per weilab shipment_forecasts (low confidence); consensus Fwd P/E aggregates IR-validated sell-side models. Anchored headline to market-implied EPS to avoid the MU v2 TTM-vs-Fwd conflation error. Top-down build retained as sensitivity input in the EPS Build tab. |
| forward_pe_reconciliation.divergence_pct | -31.6 |
| forward_pe_reconciliation.consensus_fwd_pe | 32.5 |
| forward_pe_reconciliation.top_down_eps_mid | 4.535 |
| forward_pe_reconciliation.chosen_eps_source | market-implied |
| forward_pe_reconciliation.market_implied_eps | 6.626 |
| forward_pe_reconciliation.consensus_fwd_pe_source | Bloomberg BEst aggregate 2026-05-22 — NVDA CY26E sell-side median 32.5x (range 28-38x) |
## Notes (comps_pe — market-EPS-anchored) ### Headline - Implied: **USD 201.51 / 257.18 / 324.93** (low / mid / high) - Reference: USD **215.33** → mid upside **+19.4%** - Peer median Fwd P/E CY26E: **38.81x** (AVGO 34.9, AMD 50.3, MRVL 42.7, INTC 30.3) - NVDA CY26E EPS anchor: **$6.63 (market-implied = spot ÷ consensus Fwd P/E 32.5x)** ### EPS reconciliation (critical step per project rule) | Source | Value (CY26E) | |---|---| | Market-implied (215.33 ÷ 32.5) — **CHOSEN** | **$6.63** | | Top-down rev × margin (Rubin platform build) | $4.54 | | Divergence | **−31.6%** | Top-down diverged > ±20% → triggered the MU-precedent rule that anchors to market-implied EPS. Top-down retained as sensitivity-only input. Rubin volumes are rumor/low confidence per `shipment_forecasts.confidence`, so the bottom-up understatement is expected; Street numbers fold in IR-validated guidance. ### Interpretation NVDA trades at **32.5x consensus** vs **38.8x peer median** — i.e. at a ~16% discount to its AI-semis peer group despite owning the entire Rubin platform stack (GPU/CPU/NIC/NVLink primary 99% across all three variants). Closing that gap drives the +19.4% mid upside. ### Caveats - Peer freshness: AVGO/AMD/MRVL/INTC fresh 2026-05-22 from weilab DB. TSM/ARM are stale_estimate (not in `stock_quotes`). - Consensus Fwd P/E 32.5x is a Bloomberg BEst aggregate; if Street is wrong, the market-implied anchor is wrong. - Rubin shipment forecasts are rumor/low confidence — top-down upside is meaningful only if those volumes materialise. - Peer set is AI-accelerator focused; broader semi inclusion (TXN, QCOM) would compress the multiple toward 25-30x.
