valuation / STM
2026-06-23 · Comps · P/E · medium · source: weilab/valuate@2026-06-23 (comps_pe CY27E supersede; src: NotebookLM 股癌 EP671/672)
| cash_m | 3,000 |
| debt_m | 2,900 |
| pe_path | [24,26,28] |
| currency | USD |
| eps_path | [{"eps":{"low":2.89,"mid":4.32,"high":5.97},"year":"CY27E"},{"eps":{"low":3.09,"mid":4.92,"high":6.79},"year":"CY28E"},{"eps":{"low":3.15,"mid":4.97,"high":6.93},"year":"CY29E"}] |
| pe_applied | 24 |
| pe_terminal | 20 |
| eps_estimate.low | 2.89 |
| eps_estimate.mid | 4.32 |
| eps_estimate.high | 5.97 |
| period_label | CY27E forward · 功率半導體輪動 (comps P/E) |
| pe_peer_stats.p25 | 21 |
| pe_peer_stats.p75 | 32 |
| pe_peer_stats.median | 24 |
| cost_of_equity | 8.50% |
| price_freshness | spot $79.91 = live Yahoo (corrected from stale DB $78.39). pe_peers = stale_estimate (power-semi IDM peers TXN/ADI/MPWR/IFX/NXPI/ON ~19-36x fwd). |
| rotation_drivers.source | NotebookLM 股癌 EP671/EP672 |
| rotation_drivers.lead_time | front-end 1yr+/99wk+, full utilization -> price-increase cycle |
| rotation_drivers.rotation_position | Tier 2/3, early; US IDMs lead; passives/memory (Tier 1) crowded |
| rotation_drivers.nexperia_eu_dechina | Nexperia sanction + EU de-China shifts power-semi share to STM/onsemi/IFX |
| shares_outstanding_m | 900 |
| forward_pe_reconciliation.note | spot $79.91 / CY27E base EPS $4.32 = 18.5x -> cheap for the growth; applied 24x gives +30%. The rotation upside DCF discounts away. |
| forward_pe_reconciliation.applied_fwd_pe | 24 |
| forward_pe_reconciliation.market_fwd_pe_at_spot | 18.5 |
**CY27E 重錨 + 修正現價（supersede CY26E 版）。** 今年已過半，forward 基準改用 CY27E；現價更正為 live \$79.91（DB \$78.39 只是 stale）。**關鍵**：以 CY27E 獲利看，STM 在 \$79.91 只有 **18.5x**（base EPS \$4.32）—— 對這種成長算便宜。套 24x forward P/E → mid **\$103.68（+29.8% vs spot）**，這正是 DCF 折掉的輪動上檔。forward 路徑（pe_path 24→26→28）：CY27E ~\$104 → CY28E ~\$128 → CY29E ~\$139；輪動高標 blue EPS 5.97×30x ≈ \$179。**劇本**（股癌 EP671/672）：Nexperia 制裁 + 歐盟去中化轉單、99 週+ 交期→漲價循環、功率半導體 Tier 2/3 早期輪動、US IDM 領頭。confidence medium。
