valuation / LITE
2026-06-19 · Comps · P/E · rumor · source: weilab/reverse-comps@2026-06-20
| cash_m | 1,000 |
| debt_m | 2,000 |
| currency | USD |
| eps_path | [{"eps":{"low":2.71,"mid":4.48,"high":7.14},"year":"FY26E"},{"eps":{"low":7,"mid":11,"high":16},"year":"FY27E"},{"eps":{"low":18,"mid":26,"high":36},"year":"FY28E"},{"eps":{"low":40,"mid":52,"high":68},"year":"FY29E"},{"eps":{"low":82,"mid":94.2,"high":112.4},"year":"FY30E"}] |
| pe_peers.FN | 25.2 |
| pe_peers.AVGO | 28 |
| pe_peers.COHR | 26.9 |
| pe_peers.MRVL | 28 |
| pe_peers.300308.SZ | 27.1 |
| pe_peers.300502.SZ | 27.2 |
| scenario | blue-sky: CPO/silicon-photonics dominance to 2030; reverse-engineered to a $2000-4000 fair-value band |
| pe_applied | 31.8 |
| pe_terminal | 30 |
| eps_estimate.low | 82 |
| eps_estimate.mid | 94.2 |
| eps_estimate.high | 112.4 |
| period_label | CY30E (blue-sky scenario) |
| pe_peer_stats.p25 | 25 |
| pe_peer_stats.p75 | 35 |
| pe_peer_stats.median | 27 |
| cost_of_equity | 10.50% |
| net_margin_pct | 27 |
| lite_capture_pct.low | 27 |
| lite_capture_pct.mid | 31 |
| lite_capture_pct.high | 37 |
| pv_today_mid_usd | 2,050 |
| revenue_2030_usd_m.low | 24,300 |
| revenue_2030_usd_m.mid | 27,900 |
| revenue_2030_usd_m.high | 33,300 |
| discount_rate_for_pv | 10.00% |
| shares_outstanding_m | 80 |
| optical_ai_tam_2030_usd_b | 90 |
BLUE-SKY / what-would-have-to-be-true scenario — NOT a base case (base comps mid ~$121; DCF mid ~$118). Reverse-engineered to land LITE at $2000/$3000/$4000 (2030E). The chain: Lumentum's own-stated optical AI TAM reaches >$90B in 2030 (5x from $18B, source 1); LITE captures 27/31/37% as the dominant CPO light-source + optical-engine supplier (winning a plurality vs COHR/MRVL/AVGO/InnoLight); 27% net margin via scale + high-value CPO mix + InP vertical integration; ~80M shares -> 2030E EPS $82.0/$94.2/$112.4; a 24.4/31.8/35.6x growth P/E -> $2000/$3000/$4000. PV-today mid ~$2,050 (disc ~10% over ~4y), still well above the $850 tick. What breaks it: CPO timeline slips past 2030, copper/pluggables persist at scale-up, capture share lost to Coherent/Broadcom co-packaged silicon, or margin caps below 27%. Treat as the upper tail of the distribution, hence confidence=rumor.
