valuation / COHR
2026-06-20 · Comps · P/E · low · source: weilab/market-implied@2026-06-20
| cash_m | 950 |
| debt_m | 6,000 |
| currency | USD |
| eps_path | [{"eps":{"low":3.93,"mid":5.24,"high":6.95},"year":"FY26E"},{"eps":{"low":6,"mid":8,"high":11},"year":"FY27E"},{"eps":{"low":9,"mid":11.5,"high":15},"year":"FY28E"},{"eps":{"low":10.5,"mid":14,"high":18},"year":"FY29E"},{"eps":{"low":11.96,"mid":16.54,"high":21.87},"year":"FY30E"}] |
| pe_applied | 23.6 |
| pe_terminal | 20 |
| eps_estimate.low | 11.96 |
| eps_estimate.mid | 16.54 |
| eps_estimate.high | 21.87 |
| period_label | Market-implied (2030 optical-AI story) |
| pe_peer_stats.p25 | 21 |
| pe_peer_stats.p75 | 27 |
| pe_peer_stats.median | 23.6 |
| cost_of_equity | 11.00% |
| net_margin_pct | 22 |
| valuation_basis | Industry optical AI TAM >$90B (2030) x market-implied capture ~13%; reconstructs the current $389.57 price = the future story the market is buying |
| revenue_2030_usd_m.low | 9,000 |
| revenue_2030_usd_m.mid | 11,880 |
| revenue_2030_usd_m.high | 14,400 |
| shares_outstanding_m | 158 |
| optical_ai_tam_2030_usd_b | 90 |
| market_implied_capture_pct.low | 10 |
| market_implied_capture_pct.mid | 13.2 |
| market_implied_capture_pct.high | 16 |
| market_implied_eps_at_spot | 16.51 |
MARKET-IMPLIED BASE — reconstructs the real $389.57 price instead of declaring it 55% overvalued. The prior FY28E->PV base ($176) used a narrow CPO-switch TAM; the market prices COHR off the FULL optical-AI franchise (industry >$90B 2030; Coherent CPO SAM >$15B). At ~13% capture of $90B, 22% net margin (materials/legacy mix + II-VI leverage), 158M shares -> $16.5 EPS x 23.6x = ~$390 ≈ spot. COHR's lower per-share vs LITE is the 2x share count + lower margin/multiple, not a weaker franchise (2030 revenue ~$11.9B > LITE's ~$9.9B). Blue-sky (35% capture -> $1,008) is the upper tail; a bear sits below. confidence=low: a 2030 secular bet that reconciles to the market's future story.
