valuation / 2481.TW
2026-06-23 · Comps · P/E · medium · source: weilab/valuate@2026-06-23 (comps_pe; src: winvest/Goodinfo + NotebookLM 股癌 EP671/672)
| pe_path | [32,30,28] |
| currency | TWD |
| eps_path | [{"eps":{"low":4.4,"mid":5.5,"high":7},"year":"CY27E"},{"eps":{"low":5.1,"mid":6.9,"high":9},"year":"CY28E"},{"eps":{"low":5.8,"mid":8.4,"high":11},"year":"CY29E"}] |
| pe_applied | 32 |
| eps_history.FY24A | 2.4 |
| eps_history.FY25A | 3.12 |
| pe_terminal | 24 |
| eps_estimate.low | 4.4 |
| eps_estimate.mid | 5.5 |
| eps_estimate.high | 7 |
| period_label | CY27E forward · 二工/功率半導體輪動 (comps P/E) |
| pe_peer_stats.p25 | 22 |
| pe_peer_stats.p75 | 40 |
| pe_peer_stats.median | 28 |
| price_freshness | spot = live Yahoo NT$193.5 (stock_quotes 6/22 close was 176 — fast-moving). pe_peers = stale_estimate (TW power-discrete peers: 大中/茂達/力智/富鼎 trade ~20-40x in up-cycle). |
| rotation_drivers.source | NotebookLM 股癌 EP671/EP672 |
| rotation_drivers.lead_time | 99wk+ front-end lead times -> price-increase cycle |
| rotation_drivers.second_source | PURE 二工 play — direct Nexperia replacement; SiC MOSFET + Rectifier SECONDARY on every Rubin variant |
| rotation_drivers.rotation_position | early Tier-2/3; passives (Tier 1) crowded -> money rotating to power discretes |
| rotation_drivers.nexperia_eu_dechina | Nexperia sanction + EU de-China -> TW second-source qualification wave |
| shares_outstanding_m | 382 |
| forward_pe_reconciliation.note | spot NT$193.5 / CY27E base EPS NT$5.50 = 35.2x; applied 32x slightly below (stock has front-run the rotation ~9%). FY25A EPS 3.12 -> spot is ~62x trailing. |
| forward_pe_reconciliation.applied_fwd_pe | 32 |
| forward_pe_reconciliation.market_fwd_pe_at_spot | 35.2 |
**強茂 PANJIT — 最純的早期二工輪動標的（CY27E 為基準，今年已過半）。** 劇本（股癌 EP671/672）：Nexperia（安世）被制裁 + 歐盟去中化 → 台廠二工認證潮；99 週+ 交期 → 漲價循環。強茂是離散功率廠（二極體/整流器/MOSFET，跨入 SiC/GaN），在每個 Rubin variant 的 **SiC MOSFET(800V) 與 Rectifier 兩條線都是 secondary**。**財報**：FY25 EPS NT\$3.12（FY24 2.40，+30%）、營收 130.96億、股本 38.21億→3.82億股。**股價已在 re-rate**：NT\$135→176（6/22）→ ~193.5（live），兩週飆一大段。**算法**（CY27E 基準）：base EPS NT\$5.50 × 32x = **NT\$176**（spot 已超前 ~9%）。spot 對 CY27E ~35x、對 FY25 ~62x。**上檔**：forward 路徑 CY27E 176 → CY28E 207 → CY29E 235；blue（更大二工斬獲，EPS 7.0×42x）= ~294。**注意**：(1) 含輪動前提的倍數法；(2) 股價跑很快，spot 用 live Yahoo（DB 6/22 為 176）；(3) peer 倍數為估計。confidence medium。
