valuation / 5425.TWO
2026-06-23 · Comps · P/E · low · source: weilab/valuate@2026-06-23 (comps_pe; src: winvest/cnyes/ltn + NotebookLM 股癌 EP671/672)
| pe_path | [28,26,24] |
| currency | TWD |
| eps_path | [{"eps":{"low":3.2,"mid":4.1,"high":5.2},"year":"CY27E"},{"eps":{"low":3.7,"mid":5,"high":6.5},"year":"CY28E"},{"eps":{"low":4.2,"mid":5.9,"high":7.8},"year":"CY29E"}] |
| pe_applied | 28 |
| eps_history.TTM | 2.3 |
| eps_history.FY25A | 2.07 |
| eps_history.Q1_26 | 70.00% |
| pe_terminal | 22 |
| shares_note | ESTIMATE — verify 股本 / TWSE filing |
| eps_estimate.low | 3.2 |
| eps_estimate.mid | 4.1 |
| eps_estimate.high | 5.2 |
| period_label | CY27E forward · 二工/整流二極體輪動 (comps P/E) |
| pe_peer_stats.p25 | 20 |
| pe_peer_stats.p75 | 34 |
| pe_peer_stats.median | 25 |
| price_freshness | spot = live Yahoo NT$133.5 (台半 NOT in stock_quotes). pe_peers = stale_estimate (TW discrete/diode peers ~18-34x in up-cycle). 台半 = TSC (diodes), NOT TSMC. |
| rotation_drivers.source | NotebookLM 股癌 EP671/EP672 |
| rotation_drivers.recovery | Q1'26 EPS +49% YoY, Mar'26 rev +51% YoY — strong cyclical recovery |
| rotation_drivers.second_source | 二工 beneficiary; rectifier/Schottky tangential on Rubin (more peripheral than 強茂) |
| rotation_drivers.nexperia_eu_dechina | Nexperia sanction + EU de-China -> TW second-source demand |
| shares_outstanding_m | 300 |
| forward_pe_reconciliation.note | spot NT$133.5 / CY27E base EPS NT$4.10 = 32.6x; applied 28x below (stock front-ran ~14%). FY25A EPS 2.07 -> spot ~64x trailing; rotation pays on the recovery ramp. |
| forward_pe_reconciliation.applied_fwd_pe | 28 |
| forward_pe_reconciliation.market_fwd_pe_at_spot | 32.6 |
**台半 TSC — 二工/整流二極體輪動受惠（CY27E 基準）。注意：台半 = 台灣半導體（做整流二極體/Schottky），不是台積電。** 劇本（股癌 EP671/672）：Nexperia 制裁 + 歐盟去中化 → 台廠二工需求；台半在 Rubin 的 Rectifier/Schottky 線上是 **tangential**（比強茂的 SiC+Rectifier secondary 更邊緣，故信心較低）。**財報**：FY25 EPS NT\$2.07（近四季 2.30）、Q1'26 EPS 0.70（+49% YoY）、3 月營收年增 51%、毛利 ~31% —— 強勁循環復甦。股本→股數 ~3億（**估計值，待核**）。**算法**（CY27E 基準）：base EPS NT\$4.10 × 28x = **NT\$115**（spot 已超前 ~14%）。spot 對 CY27E ~33x、對 FY25 ~64x。**上檔**：forward CY27E 115 → CY28E 130 → CY29E 142；blue（EPS 5.20×36x）= ~187。**注意**：(1) 含輪動前提倍數法；(2) 股數為估計、spot 用 live Yahoo（不在 stock_quotes）；(3) 曝險較邊緣。confidence low。
