valuation / COHR
2026-06-20 · Comps · P/E · rumor · source: weilab/reverse-comps@2026-06-20
| cash_m | 950 |
| debt_m | 6,000 |
| currency | USD |
| eps_path | [{"eps":{"low":3.93,"mid":5.24,"high":6.95},"year":"FY26E"},{"eps":{"low":7,"mid":11,"high":16},"year":"FY27E"},{"eps":{"low":15,"mid":21,"high":28},"year":"FY28E"},{"eps":{"low":25,"mid":31,"high":40},"year":"FY29E"},{"eps":{"low":36,"mid":42,"high":50.4},"year":"FY30E"}] |
| scenario | blue-sky: CPO/silicon-photonics dominance to 2030; same method as LITE blue-sky |
| pe_applied | 24 |
| pe_terminal | 20 |
| eps_estimate.low | 36 |
| eps_estimate.mid | 42 |
| eps_estimate.high | 50.4 |
| period_label | CY30E (blue-sky scenario) |
| pe_peer_stats.p25 | 22 |
| pe_peer_stats.p75 | 27 |
| pe_peer_stats.median | 24 |
| cost_of_equity | 11.00% |
| net_margin_pct | 22 |
| cohr_capture_pct.low | 30 |
| cohr_capture_pct.mid | 35 |
| cohr_capture_pct.high | 42 |
| pv_today_mid_usd | 664 |
| revenue_2030_usd_m.low | 27,000 |
| revenue_2030_usd_m.mid | 31,500 |
| revenue_2030_usd_m.high | 37,800 |
| discount_rate_for_pv | 11.00% |
| shares_outstanding_m | 165 |
| optical_ai_tam_2030_usd_b | 90 |
BLUE-SKY / what-would-have-to-be-true scenario — NOT a base case (base comps FY28E-PV mid ~$176). Same chain as the LITE blue-sky: industry optical AI TAM >$90B 2030 (source 1); COHR captures 30/35/42% as a dominant datacom-transceiver + EEL/DFB + CPO optical-engine supplier; 22% net margin (below LITE's 27% on materials/legacy mix + II-VI leverage); ~165M shares -> CY30E EPS $36/$42/$50; exit P/E 20/24/27x -> $720/$1,008/$1,361. PV-today mid ~$664 (disc 11% over ~4y). COHR lands ~3x below LITE's blue-sky purely on 2x share count + lower margin/multiple, NOT a weaker CPO story (by 2030 revenue COHR is the bigger optical franchise). What breaks it: CPO slips past 2030, capture lost to Lumentum/Broadcom, or margin caps below 22%. confidence=rumor.
