valuation / LITE
2026-06-20 · Comps · P/E · low · source: weilab/market-implied@2026-06-20
| cash_m | 1,000 |
| debt_m | 2,000 |
| currency | USD |
| eps_path | [{"eps":{"low":2.71,"mid":4.48,"high":7.14},"year":"FY26E"},{"eps":{"low":7,"mid":11,"high":15},"year":"FY27E"},{"eps":{"low":13,"mid":18,"high":24},"year":"FY28E"},{"eps":{"low":20,"mid":26,"high":33},"year":"FY29E"},{"eps":{"low":25.96,"mid":31.73,"high":40.5},"year":"FY30E"}] |
| pe_applied | 27 |
| pe_terminal | 24 |
| eps_estimate.low | 25.96 |
| eps_estimate.mid | 31.73 |
| eps_estimate.high | 40.5 |
| period_label | Market-implied (2030 optical-AI story) |
| pe_peer_stats.p25 | 25 |
| pe_peer_stats.p75 | 29 |
| pe_peer_stats.median | 27 |
| cost_of_equity | 10.50% |
| net_margin_pct | 25 |
| valuation_basis | Lumentum-stated optical AI TAM >$90B (2030) x market-implied capture ~11%; reconstructs the current $850 price = the future story the market is buying |
| revenue_2030_usd_m.low | 8,100 |
| revenue_2030_usd_m.mid | 9,900 |
| revenue_2030_usd_m.high | 12,150 |
| shares_outstanding_m | 78 |
| optical_ai_tam_2030_usd_b | 90 |
| market_implied_capture_pct.low | 9 |
| market_implied_capture_pct.mid | 11 |
| market_implied_capture_pct.high | 13.5 |
| market_implied_eps_at_spot | 31.48 |
MARKET-IMPLIED BASE — reconstructs the real $850 price instead of declaring it 80% overvalued. The prior FY28E->PV base ($174) was anchored to a narrow CPO-switch TAM ($17-24B); the market prices LITE off the FULL optical-AI franchise (Lumentum's own stated >$90B 2030 TAM). At ~11% capture of $90B, 25% net margin, 78M shares -> $31.7 EPS x 27x = ~$857 ≈ spot. So the market isn't irrational: at $850 it implies LITE owns ~11% of the 2030 optical-AI pie — modest vs the 31% blue-sky, but on the whole franchise not just CPO. This is the realistic centre; blue-sky (31% capture -> $3,000) is the upper tail, and a bear (slower CPO / lost share) sits below. confidence=low: still a 2030 secular bet, but it reconciles to the market's future story.
