valuation / ON
2026-06-23 · DCF · low · source: weilab/model-builder@2026-06-23
| wacc | 9.65% |
| cash_m | 2,500 |
| debt_m | 3,005 |
| currency | USD |
| terminal_g | 3.00% |
| pe_terminal | 18 |
| period_label | Market-implied · 800V SiC 純度王 (priced-for-perfection) |
| forecast_path | [{"eps":3.98,"year":"CY26E","fcf_usd_m":1184,"ebitda_usd_m":2619,"revenue_usd_m":7078},{"eps":6.2,"year":"CY27E","fcf_usd_m":1933,"ebitda_usd_m":3896,"revenue_usd_m":9060},{"eps":7.93,"year":"CY28E","fcf_usd_m":2644,"ebitda_usd_m":4943,"revenue_usd_m":11234},{"eps":8.96,"year":"CY29E","fcf_usd_m":3124,"ebitda_usd_m":5604,"revenue_usd_m":13032},{"eps":9.76,"year":"CY30E","fcf_usd_m":3512,"ebitda_usd_m":6130,"revenue_usd_m":14596}] |
| ai_800v_sizing.note | onsemi is the PUREST AI-800V SiC pure-play; its self-reported content/TAM anchored the STM re-size. |
| ai_800v_sizing.ai_dc_growth | doubling YoY 2025 & guided 2026 |
| ai_800v_sizing.sic_customers | 600 |
| ai_800v_sizing.onsemi_ai_dc_rev_2025_usd_m | 250 |
| ai_800v_sizing.ai_800v_power_semi_tam_2030_usd_b | 2.6 |
| ai_800v_sizing.onsemi_power_semi_per_1mw_rack_usd_k | [50,100] |
| pe_applied_fwd | 26 |
| revenue_cagr_5y | 19.50% |
| scenario_layers.base.price | 117.18 |
| scenario_layers.base.thesis | market-implied: aggressive AI-SiC ramp ~3x revenue from trough, structural ~50% GM; reconstructs ~spot, NO margin of safety |
| scenario_layers.base.confidence | low |
| scenario_layers.bear.price | 59.24 |
| scenario_layers.bear.thesis | MEASURED recovery, no super-cycle; onsemi to ~$9.5B rev, mid-40s GM — the realistic floor, -51% vs spot |
| scenario_layers.bear.confidence | medium |
| scenario_layers.blue_sky.price | 131.16 |
| scenario_layers.blue_sky.thesis | aggressive + GM peak 54% + terminal g 3.5% |
| scenario_layers.blue_sky.confidence | rumor |
| scenario_layers.deep_bear.price | 29.35 |
| scenario_layers.deep_bear.thesis | shortage fails / SiC capacity floods / auto+industrial stays soft |
| scenario_layers.deep_bear.confidence | low |
| scenario_layers.de_risked_compounder.price | 143.79 |
| scenario_layers.de_risked_compounder.thesis | same aggressive ramp but market re-rates discount rate down (beta 1.35->1.15, WACC ->8.9%) |
| scenario_layers.de_risked_compounder.confidence | rumor |
| shortage_window.end_year | CY28E |
| shortage_window.start_year | CY26E |
| shortage_window.peak_gross_margin | 53.00% |
| shortage_window.normalized_gross_margin | 48.50% |
| valuation_basis | Two-stage DCF (CY26E-CY33E explicit, single WACC 9.65%, beta 1.35). Base year FY24 $7,082M; CY25E = FY25 ACTUAL trough $5,995M. The HEADLINE BASE is the market-implied AGGRESSIVE case that reconstructs ~spot (per valuate discipline): onsemi ~3x revenue from the 2025 trough to ~$15B (2030) / ~$18B (2033) at structural ~50% gross margin, driven by AI-800V SiC (AI DC revenue doubling YoY) + EV recovery. It has NO margin of safety — a measured recovery (no super-cycle) is the BEAR at $59 (-51%). De-risked-compounder upside (WACC->8.9%) ~$144; deep-bear (shortage fails) ~$29. onsemi is the purest AI-SiC play and the source of the $50-100k/1MW-rack content figure. |
| growth_years_stage2 | 3 |
| revenue_cagr_stage2 | 5.50% |
| shares_outstanding_m | 423 |
| ebitda_margin_terminal | 39.50% |
| market_implied_capture_pct | 125.8 |
| market_implied_eps_at_spot | 4.68 |
**onsemi = 800V SiC 純度王 (priced-for-perfection)** — onsemi 是這整個劇本最純的標的：\$50–100k/1MW 機櫃內容、AI DC 營收 2025/2026 連兩年 YoY 翻倍、600+ SiC 客戶、\$2.6B 2030 TAM —— 全是它自己的數字（也是我幫 STM 重估的依據）。FY25 為深谷（營收 \$5,995M −15.3%、GAAP 淨利因重組崩到 \$121M）。**關鍵發現** — 紀律 DCF（WACC 9.65%、beta 1.35）每一層都低於現價 \$121.62，連結構性 blue-sky 也只 ~\$88。依 market-implied 紀律「不質疑市場、重建現價在買什麼」：**market-implied base = 把 onsemi 從谷底 ~3 倍營收做到 2033 ~\$18B、結構性 ~50% 毛利的激進情境，才重建出 ~spot（\$117，−4%）**。但這**沒有安全邊際**：若只是溫和復甦（無超級循環）→ bear \$59（−51%）。再上檔靠折現率下修（compounder de-rate，WACC→8.9%）~\$144；崩盤（缺貨破局）~\$29。**相對判斷** — 對比 STM（base −15% 且用的是溫和假設），onsemi 內含的期待高得多，現價只在「完整激進 AI-SiC ramp 成真」時站得住；beta 更高、需要更高信念。Confidence：headline base **low**（priced for perfection）、bear medium、blue/compounder rumor。歷史數取自 10-K（已核），但前瞻 ramp 為激進估計。⚠️ 現價 \$121.62 你先前說可能要更正 —— 若給我正確值我重錨。來源：onsemi FY24/FY25 10-K、ST/onsemi 800VDC、techinvestments.io。
