onsemi (ON Semiconductor)ON

2026-06-23 · Comps · P/E · low · source: weilab/valuate@2026-06-23 (comps_pe CY27E supersede; src: NotebookLM 股癌 EP671/672)

Implied price

USD 184.52

USD 86.46 – USD 247.86

Reference

USD 131.55

Upside

4027.0%

假設 (assumptions)

cash_m	2,500
debt_m	3,005
pe_path	[28,30,28]
currency	USD
eps_path	[{"eps":{"low":3.93,"mid":6.59,"high":7.29},"year":"CY27E"},{"eps":{"low":4.58,"mid":8.56,"high":9.28},"year":"CY28E"},{"eps":{"low":4.82,"mid":9.76,"high":10.59},"year":"CY29E"}]
pe_applied	28
pe_terminal	22
eps_estimate.low	3.93
eps_estimate.mid	6.59
eps_estimate.high	7.29
period_label	CY27E forward · 800V SiC 純度王輪動 (comps P/E)
pe_peer_stats.p25	20
pe_peer_stats.p75	33
pe_peer_stats.median	24
cost_of_equity	9.50%
price_freshness	spot $131.55 = live Yahoo (corrected from stale DB $121.62). pe_peers = stale_estimate; onsemi gets a premium-to-median multiple as the purest AI-SiC play + rotation leader.
rotation_drivers.purity	purest AI-800V SiC pure-play; $50-100k power-semi/1MW rack is onsemi's own figure
rotation_drivers.source	NotebookLM 股癌 EP671/EP672
rotation_drivers.lead_time	99wk+ front-end lead times -> price-increase cycle; 800V ~5% penetration 2027 = icebreaker
rotation_drivers.leadership	US-listed IDM that LEADS the rotation (股癌: 上週末全部射出去)
rotation_drivers.nexperia_eu_dechina	Nexperia sanction + EU de-China -> share to non-China IDMs
shares_outstanding_m	423
forward_pe_reconciliation.note	spot $131.55 / CY27E base EPS $6.59 = 20.0x -> reasonable once past the FY25 trough; applied 28x (pure-play premium) gives +40%. No longer 'priced for perfection' on CY27E.
forward_pe_reconciliation.applied_fwd_pe	28
forward_pe_reconciliation.market_fwd_pe_at_spot	20

供應鏈錨點

/ · SiC MOSFET (800VDC front-end) (primary)
/ · SiC MOSFET (800VDC front-end) (primary)
/ · SiC MOSFET (800VDC front-end) (primary)

備註

**CY27E 重錨 + 修正現價（supersede CY26E 版）。** 今年已過半 → 改用 CY27E（CY26E 嚴重低估 onsemi，因 FY26 仍是谷底復甦年）；現價更正為 live \$131.55（DB \$121.62 為 stale）。**關鍵**：以 CY27E 獲利看，onsemi 在 \$131.55 是 **20.0x**（base EPS \$6.59）—— 不再是「priced for perfection」。套 28x（純度王溢價）→ mid **\$184.52（+40.3% vs spot）**，這是 DCF 折掉的輪動上檔。forward 路徑（pe_path 28→30→28）：CY27E ~\$185 → CY28E ~\$257 → CY29E ~\$273；輪動高標 blue EPS 7.29×34x ≈ \$248。**劇本**：US IDM 領頭、Nexperia 制裁 + 歐盟去中化、99 週+ 交期→漲價、800V 明年 ~5% 滲透率「破冰船」、最純 AI-SiC play。confidence low（CY27E base 仍需谷底強復甦）。