valuations / STM
STMicroelectronicsSTM
Implied share price
$66.91
$29.64 – $104
Reference price
$78.39
market at valuation time
Upside
↓ 14.6%
implied mid vs reference
假設 (assumptions)
wacc
8.52%
cash_m
3,000
debt_m
2,900
currency
USD
terminal_g
2.70%
pe_terminal
16
period_label
Market-implied base · 結構性 800V SiC 缺貨 (DCF)
forecast_path
[{"eps":3.22,"year":"CY26E","fcf_usd_m":1822,"ebitda_usd_m":4891,"revenue_usd_m":16035},{"eps":3.99,"year":"CY27E","fcf_usd_m":2508,"ebitda_usd_m":5952,"revenue_usd_m":18601},{"eps":4.43,"year":"CY28E","fcf_usd_m":3190,"ebitda_usd_m":6607,"revenue_usd_m":20647},{"eps":4.38,"year":"CY29E","fcf_usd_m":3426,"ebitda_usd_m":6675,"revenue_usd_m":21886},{"eps":4.37,"year":"CY30E","fcf_usd_m":3538,"ebitda_usd_m":6779,"revenue_usd_m":22980}]
pe_applied_fwd
22
revenue_cagr_5y
10.30%
growth_years_stage2
3
revenue_cagr_stage2
4.00%
shares_outstanding_m
900
ebitda_margin_terminal
28.50%
market_implied_capture_pct
76.2
market_implied_eps_at_spot
3.56
valuation_basis
Two-stage DCF (CY26E-CY33E explicit). Full-franchise recovery off the FY24 trough + a STRUCTURAL multi-year 800V SiC shortage (2027-2030 ramp, competing with EV for fab capacity). Shortage window CY26E-CY28E spikes gross margin (base 46.5%, blue 53%), then re-rates DURABLY to a structurally higher terminal (base ~43%, blue ~45.5%) — not back to old ~40% mid-cycle. Base mid reconstructs ~spot (-14.6%; gap closed from -27% once 800V sized at onsemi's $50-100k/1MW-rack content, $2.6B 2030 TAM). Direct AI-SiC revenue is only ~2-4% of total — the thesis works through the shortage lifting ASP/GM across the WHOLE SiC/power book (the MLCC-2018 mechanism), not the direct slice.
ai_800v_sizing
note
onsemi self-reported content doubled $50k->$100k/1MW rack; STM named NVIDIA 800VDC primary. Earlier build used $10k -> corrected.
stm_direct_ai_sic_pct_of_rev
2-4%
stm_sic_slice_per_rack_usd_k
50
ai_800v_power_semi_tam_2030_usd_b
2.6
onsemi_power_semi_per_1mw_rack_usd_k
[50,100]
scenario_layers
base
{"price":66.91,"thesis":"franchise recovery + structural 800V SiC re-rate (durable terminal GM ~43%); reconstructs ~spot","confidence":"medium"}
bear
{"price":29.64,"thesis":"shortage fizzles / 800V SiC capacity arrives fast / auto+industrial stays soft","confidence":"low"}
blue_sky
{"price":103.51,"thesis":"full structural super-cycle; ASP+GM spike persists (terminal GM ~45.5%), high SiC capture","confidence":"rumor"}
shortage_window
end_year
CY28E
start_year
CY26E
peak_gross_margin
46.50%
normalized_gross_margin
43.00%
未來 5 年 forward 價格目標
DCFimplied = EPS × P/E；PV-today = implied ÷ (1 + r)年期，r = 8.5%。 只在瀏覽器計算，不會更動 DB。
| 年期 | EPS (mid) | P/E | Implied (raw) | Implied (PV today) | Upside vs ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CY26E | 3.22 3.22 – 3.22 | 22.00 | $70.84 $70.84 – $70.84 | $65.28 | ↓ 9.6% |
| CY27E | 3.99 3.99 – 3.99 | 20.50(i) | $81.80 $81.80 – $81.80 | $69.46 | ↑ 4.3% |
| CY28E | 4.43 4.43 – 4.43 | 19.00(i) | $84.17 $84.17 – $84.17 | $65.86 | ↑ 7.4% |
| CY29E | 4.38 4.38 – 4.38 | 17.50(i) | $76.65 $76.65 – $76.65 | $55.27 | ↓ 2.2% |
| CY30E | 4.37 4.37 – 4.37 | 16.00 | $69.92 $69.92 – $69.92 | $46.46 | ↓ 10.8% |
P/E 採 mean-reversion：FY+1 用 sub-agent 套用值、終點收斂到 peer median / pe_terminal；中間年份線性內插（標 (i)）。
敏感度：WACC × Terminal g
中心格 = base case；其他格為對應軸值組合下的 implied share price。
| WACC \ g | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | 73.24 | 78.36 | 84.62 |
| 8.5% | 62.22 | 65.62 | 69.63 |
| 9.5% | 54.14 | 56.52 | 59.27 |
供應鏈錨點
revenue projection 校準依據；點 product/variant 連回 BOM 頁。
備註
**結構性 800V SiC 缺貨 thesis** — STM 為 top-3 SiC 供應商、NVIDIA 800VDC 點名 primary。800VDC AI 機櫃（Kyber／Rubin Ultra，2027 起 600kW–1MW）需 1200V SiC MOSFET。onsemi 自報單機櫃 power-semi 內容已從 \$50k 倍增至 \$100k／1MW，2030 年 800V SiC/GaN TAM ~\$2.6B。關鍵：這是**跨 2027–2030 的結構性缺貨**（還與 EV 搶同一批 fab 產能），複製 MLCC-2018 劇本 —— 缺貨把**整本 SiC／power book 的 ASP/毛利持久墊高**，非一次性 blip。**重估**（修正前一版把 800V 當 \$10k/rack、僅 0.8% 營收的過度暫時化）：毛利結構性 re-rate（base 終端 ~43%、blue ~45.5%），三層由 \$29.72/\$57.35/\$83.36 變為 **\$29.64 / \$66.91 / \$103.51**。**Reverse-step** — base \$66.91 vs spot \$78.39 為 **−14.6%**（gap 從 −27% 收斂、更貼市場），base CY27E 淨利對 spot 22x 隱含 ~\$3.2B NI 之 +12% 內 → 守錨非質疑市場。**主要風險** — 全繫於 SiC 定價權；Infineon／onsemi 產能更快到位或車用／工業續弱則崩回 ~\$30 bear。直接 AI-SiC 營收僅 ~2–4%，論點靠整本毛利持久性而非該切片。Confidence：base medium、blue rumor；歷史財報數字為估計值，待 20-F 核對。來源：onsemi IR 2025、ST newsroom、techinvestments.io。