valuations / AMD

Advanced Micro DevicesAMD

📅 2026-05-14📐 DCF🎯 lowsource: weilab/model-builder@2026-05-14

Implied share price

$97.56

$76.59 – $136

Reference price

$449

market at valuation time

Upside

↓ 78.3%

implied mid vs reference

假設 (assumptions)

wacc

13.19%

cash_m

5,100

debt_m

1,720

terminal_g

3.00%

revenue_cagr_5y

19.72%

tax_rate_terminal

15.00%

shares_outstanding_m

1,640

ebitda_margin_terminal

38.50%

wacc_build

13.38%

erp

5.50%

beta

1.65

risk_free

4.30%

debt_weight

2.00%

kd_after_tax

5.50%

equity_weight

98.00%

segments_fy2024_usd_m

client

7,054

gaming

2,595

embedded

3,557

data_center

12,582

互動式 DCF 試算

標準兩階段 DCF（簡化版，與 snapshot 內細項分段模型可能有 ±10% 誤差）；只在瀏覽器計算，不會更動 DB。

折現率 WACC

EBITDA Margin

稅率

成長期 (Growth Stage)

年數

營收 CAGR

永續期 (Terminal Stage)

永續成長 g

永續期無年限；以 Gordon Growth Model 折回 PV。WACC 必須 > g。

進階：規模 / 資產負債

起始營收 (M USD)

流通股數 (M)

現金 (M USD)

負債 (M USD)

試算 Implied Share Price

$101

↓ 77.4% vs reference $449

成長期貢獻 / 股

$30.54

永續期貢獻 / 股

$68.85

企業價值 EV (M)

163,001

權益價值 (M)

166,381

敏感度：WACC × Terminal g

中心格 = base case；其他格為對應軸值組合下的 implied share price。

WACC \ g	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%
11.2%	113.25	117.95	123.22	129.18	135.97
12.2%	101.35	104.98	109.02	113.51	118.56
13.2%	91.54	94.41	97.56	101.04	104.89
14.2%	83.48	85.79	88.3	91.05	94.07
15.2%	76.59	78.47	80.5	82.71	85.12

供應鏈錨點

revenue projection 校準依據；點 product/variant 連回 BOM 頁。

mi400 / mi450· MI450 GPU die / EPYC CPU / Pensando NIC+DPU100%(design_owner)· 50,000 套 @ 2026 H2
mi400 / mi455x· MI455X GPU die / EPYC CPU / Pensando NIC+DPU / UALink fabric100%(design_owner)· 15,000 套 @ 2027 H1

備註

AMD full-company DCF using AMD 10-K FY2024 + Q1 2025 results, with MI400-series anchors applied as hard overrides on Data Center revenue in 2026 H2 (MI450: 50k units × $22k = ~$1.10B) and 2027 H1 (MI455X: 15k × $28k = ~$0.42B). Both anchors are flagged rumor-tier in the weilab DB.

Base WACC ≈ 13.19% (Ke from CAPM rf 4.30% + β 1.65 × ERP 5.5%; debt weight only 2%). Terminal g = 3.0%. The model projects 5y revenue CAGR ~20% with Data Center leading (12.6B → ~47B by 2030), margin expansion from 49% → 59% gross and EBITDA margin landing ~38.5% terminal. Implied EV ~$157B, equity ~$160B, base implied share price $97.56.

This is materially below the $449.44 reference, implying ~78% downside. The gap reflects (a) consensus pricing in 50%+ DC CAGR for many more years than our 5y window, and (b) WACC penalty from β 1.65. Confidence is low — the rumor-tier MI400 anchors only swing the model by ~$3–5/share, so the gap is structural (margin trajectory + terminal multiple), not anchor-driven. Sensitivity shows even the bullish corner (WACC 11.19%, g 4.0%) only reaches $135.97.