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Advanced Micro Devices

AMDNASDAQ· USwww.amd.com

GPU + CPU designer. Owns the MI400/MI450 series spec, Pensando NIC/DPU silicon, and the Helios open-rack reference architecture.

近 30 天股價

$537.37+4.86%

市值 $876.24B

價格警報

最新估值

$97.56-78.29%
DCF · 2026-05-14 · low

AMD full-company DCF using AMD 10-K FY2024 + Q1 2025 results, with MI400-series anchors applied as hard overrides on Data Center revenue in 2026 H2 (MI450: 50k units × $22k = ~$1.10B) and 2027 H1 (MI455X: 15k × $28k = ~$0.42B). Both anchors are flagged rumor-tier in the weilab DB. Base WACC ≈ 13.19% (Ke from CAPM rf 4.30% + β 1.65 × ERP 5.5%; debt weight only 2%). Terminal g = 3.0%. The model projects 5y revenue CAGR ~20% with Data Center leading (12.6B → ~47B by 2030), margin expansion from 49% → 59% gross and EBITDA margin landing ~38.5% terminal. Implied EV ~$157B, equity ~$160B, base implied share price $97.56. This is materially below the $449.44 reference, implying ~78% downside. The gap reflects (a) consensus pricing in 50%+ DC CAGR for many more years than our 5y window, and (b) WACC penalty from β 1.65. Confidence is low — the rumor-tier MI400 anchors only swing the model by ~$3–5/share, so the gap is structural (margin trajectory + terminal multiple), not anchor-driven. Sensitivity shows even the bullish corner (WACC 11.19%, g 4.0%) only reaches $135.97.

看歷史估值 →

在 BOM 上的位置

AMD Instinct MI400 Series · AMD Instinct MI4504 row
  • 1°Pensando Vulcano 800 AI NIC· 99%
  • 1°Pensando Salina 400 DPU· 99%
  • design_ownerMI450 GPU die· 99%
  • design_ownerEPYC Venice CPU· 99%
AMD Instinct MI400 Series · AMD Instinct MI455X (Helios Rack)5 row
  • 1°Pensando Vulcano 800 AI NIC· 99%
  • 1°Pensando Salina 400 DPU· 99%
  • design_ownerMI455X GPU die· 99%
  • design_ownerEPYC Venice CPU· 99%
  • design_ownerUALink scale-up fabric· 99%

題材歸屬

  • TGV 製程設備鏈 — 8 大步驟拆解,雷射 + 蝕刻是良率瓶頸最厚的商機hotTangential

    客戶端 — CoPoS 確認預訂;MI400 系列為下一代 packaging 載具

財報 highlight

期別Revenue (USD)EPS毛利率YoYSource
2026Q1$10.25B—53.1%+37.80%yahoo-finance2
2025Q4$10.27B———yahoo-finance2
2025Q3$9.25B———yahoo-finance2
2025Q2$7.68B———yahoo-finance2

競爭對手

尚未有競爭對手資料。

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新聞 timeline

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