valuations / STM
STMicroelectronicsSTM
📅 2026-06-23📐 Comps · P/E🎯 mediumsource: weilab/valuate@2026-06-23 (comps_pe CY27E supersede; src: NotebookLM 股癌 EP671/672)存成 PDF
Implied share price
$104
$57.80 – $179
Reference price
$79.91
market at valuation time
Upside
↑ 29.8%
implied mid vs reference
假設 (assumptions)
cash_m
3,000
debt_m
2,900
pe_path
[24,26,28]
currency
USD
eps_path
[{"eps":{"low":2.89,"mid":4.32,"high":5.97},"year":"CY27E"},{"eps":{"low":3.09,"mid":4.92,"high":6.79},"year":"CY28E"},{"eps":{"low":3.15,"mid":4.97,"high":6.93},"year":"CY29E"}]
pe_applied
24
pe_terminal
20
period_label
CY27E forward · 功率半導體輪動 (comps P/E)
cost_of_equity
8.50%
shares_outstanding_m
900
price_freshness
spot $79.91 = live Yahoo (corrected from stale DB $78.39). pe_peers = stale_estimate (power-semi IDM peers TXN/ADI/MPWR/IFX/NXPI/ON ~19-36x fwd).
eps_estimate
low
2.89
mid
4.32
high
5.97
pe_peer_stats
p25
21
p75
32
median
24
rotation_drivers
source
NotebookLM 股癌 EP671/EP672
lead_time
front-end 1yr+/99wk+, full utilization -> price-increase cycle
rotation_position
Tier 2/3, early; US IDMs lead; passives/memory (Tier 1) crowded
nexperia_eu_dechina
Nexperia sanction + EU de-China shifts power-semi share to STM/onsemi/IFX
forward_pe_reconciliation
note
spot $79.91 / CY27E base EPS $4.32 = 18.5x -> cheap for the growth; applied 24x gives +30%. The rotation upside DCF discounts away.
applied_fwd_pe
24
market_fwd_pe_at_spot
18.5
互動式 P/E 試算CY27E forward · 功率半導體輪動 (comps P/E)
implied = EPS × P/E。只在瀏覽器計算，不會更動 DB。
情境
Peer 一鍵套用
試算 Implied Share Price
$104
↑ 29.7% vs reference $79.91
拆解
EPS 4.32 × P/E 24.00 = $104
未來 3 年 forward 價格目標
Comps · P/Eimplied = EPS × P/E；PV-today = implied ÷ (1 + r)年期，r = 8.5%。 只在瀏覽器計算，不會更動 DB。
| 年期 | EPS (mid) | P/E | Implied (raw) | Implied (PV today) | Upside vs ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CY27E | 4.32 2.89 – 5.97 | 24.00 | $104 $69.36 – $143 | $95.56 | ↑ 29.7% |
| CY28E | 4.92 3.09 – 6.79 | 26.00 | $128 $80.34 – $177 | $109 | ↑ 60.1% |
| CY29E | 4.97 3.15 – 6.93 | 28.00 | $139 $88.20 – $194 | $109 | ↑ 74.1% |
P/E path 由 sub-agent 自訂。
供應鏈錨點
revenue projection 校準依據；點 product/variant 連回 BOM 頁。
備註
**CY27E 重錨 + 修正現價（supersede CY26E 版）。** 今年已過半，forward 基準改用 CY27E；現價更正為 live \$79.91（DB \$78.39 只是 stale）。**關鍵**：以 CY27E 獲利看，STM 在 \$79.91 只有 **18.5x**（base EPS \$4.32）—— 對這種成長算便宜。套 24x forward P/E → mid **\$103.68（+29.8% vs spot）**，這正是 DCF 折掉的輪動上檔。forward 路徑（pe_path 24→26→28）：CY27E ~\$104 → CY28E ~\$128 → CY29E ~\$139；輪動高標 blue EPS 5.97×30x ≈ \$179。**劇本**（股癌 EP671/672）：Nexperia 制裁 + 歐盟去中化轉單、99 週+ 交期→漲價循環、功率半導體 Tier 2/3 早期輪動、US IDM 領頭。confidence medium。