valuations / LITE
LumentumLITE
Implied share price
$3,000
$2,000 – $4,000
Reference price
$850
market at valuation time
Upside
↑ 252.9%
implied mid vs reference
假設 (assumptions)
cash_m
1,000
debt_m
2,000
currency
USD
eps_path
[{"eps":{"low":2.71,"mid":4.48,"high":7.14},"year":"FY26E"},{"eps":{"low":7,"mid":11,"high":16},"year":"FY27E"},{"eps":{"low":18,"mid":26,"high":36},"year":"FY28E"},{"eps":{"low":40,"mid":52,"high":68},"year":"FY29E"},{"eps":{"low":82,"mid":94.2,"high":112.4},"year":"FY30E"}]
pe_applied
31.8
pe_terminal
30
period_label
CY30E (blue-sky scenario)
cost_of_equity
10.50%
net_margin_pct
27
pv_today_mid_usd
2,050
discount_rate_for_pv
10.00%
shares_outstanding_m
80
optical_ai_tam_2030_usd_b
90
scenario
blue-sky: CPO/silicon-photonics dominance to 2030; reverse-engineered to a $2000-4000 fair-value band
pe_peers
FN
25.2
AVGO
28
COHR
26.9
MRVL
28
300308.SZ
27.1
300502.SZ
27.2
eps_estimate
low
82
mid
94.2
high
112.4
pe_peer_stats
p25
25
p75
35
median
27
lite_capture_pct
low
27
mid
31
high
37
revenue_2030_usd_m
low
24,300
mid
27,900
high
33,300
互動式 P/E 試算CY30E (blue-sky scenario)
implied = EPS × P/E。只在瀏覽器計算，不會更動 DB。
情境
Peer 一鍵套用
試算 Implied Share Price
$2,996
↑ 252.4% vs reference $850
拆解
EPS 94.20 × P/E 31.80 = $2,996
未來 5 年 forward 價格目標
Comps · P/Eimplied = EPS × P/E；PV-today = implied ÷ (1 + r)年期，r = 10.5%。 只在瀏覽器計算，不會更動 DB。
| 年期 | EPS (mid) | P/E | Implied (raw) | Implied (PV today) | Upside vs ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY26E | 4.48 2.71 – 7.14 | 31.80 | $142 $86.18 – $227 | $129 | ↓ 83.2% |
| FY27E | 11.00 7.00 – 16.00 | 31.35(i) | $345 $219 – $502 | $282 | ↓ 59.4% |
| FY28E | 26.00 18.00 – 36.00 | 30.90(i) | $803 $556 – $1,112 | $595 | ↓ 5.5% |
| FY29E | 52.00 40.00 – 68.00 | 30.45(i) | $1,583 $1,218 – $2,071 | $1,062 | ↑ 86.3% |
| FY30E | 94.20 82.00 – 112.40 | 30.00 | $2,826 $2,460 – $3,372 | $1,715 | ↑ 232.5% |
P/E 採 mean-reversion：FY+1 用 sub-agent 套用值、終點收斂到 peer median / pe_terminal；中間年份線性內插（標 (i)）。
供應鏈錨點
revenue projection 校準依據；點 product/variant 連回 BOM 頁。
備註
BLUE-SKY / what-would-have-to-be-true scenario — NOT a base case (base comps mid ~$121; DCF mid ~$118). Reverse-engineered to land LITE at $2000/$3000/$4000 (2030E). The chain: Lumentum's own-stated optical AI TAM reaches >$90B in 2030 (5x from $18B, source 1); LITE captures 27/31/37% as the dominant CPO light-source + optical-engine supplier (winning a plurality vs COHR/MRVL/AVGO/InnoLight); 27% net margin via scale + high-value CPO mix + InP vertical integration; ~80M shares -> 2030E EPS $82.0/$94.2/$112.4; a 24.4/31.8/35.6x growth P/E -> $2000/$3000/$4000. PV-today mid ~$2,050 (disc ~10% over ~4y), still well above the $850 tick. What breaks it: CPO timeline slips past 2030, copper/pluggables persist at scale-up, capture share lost to Coherent/Broadcom co-packaged silicon, or margin caps below 27%. Treat as the upper tail of the distribution, hence confidence=rumor.