valuations / COHR
CoherentCOHR
Implied share price
$390
$251 – $590
Reference price
$390
market at valuation time
Upside
↑ 0.1%
implied mid vs reference
假設 (assumptions)
cash_m
950
debt_m
6,000
currency
USD
eps_path
[{"eps":{"low":3.93,"mid":5.24,"high":6.95},"year":"FY26E"},{"eps":{"low":6,"mid":8,"high":11},"year":"FY27E"},{"eps":{"low":9,"mid":11.5,"high":15},"year":"FY28E"},{"eps":{"low":10.5,"mid":14,"high":18},"year":"FY29E"},{"eps":{"low":11.96,"mid":16.54,"high":21.87},"year":"FY30E"}]
pe_applied
23.6
pe_terminal
20
period_label
Market-implied (2030 optical-AI story)
cost_of_equity
11.00%
net_margin_pct
22
shares_outstanding_m
158
optical_ai_tam_2030_usd_b
90
market_implied_eps_at_spot
16.51
valuation_basis
Industry optical AI TAM >$90B (2030) x market-implied capture ~13%; reconstructs the current $389.57 price = the future story the market is buying
eps_estimate
low
11.96
mid
16.54
high
21.87
pe_peer_stats
p25
21
p75
27
median
23.6
revenue_2030_usd_m
low
9,000
mid
11,880
high
14,400
market_implied_capture_pct
low
10
mid
13.2
high
16
互動式 P/E 試算Market-implied (2030 optical-AI story)
implied = EPS × P/E。只在瀏覽器計算，不會更動 DB。
情境
Peer 一鍵套用
試算 Implied Share Price
$390
↑ 0.2% vs reference $390
拆解
EPS 16.54 × P/E 23.60 = $390
未來 5 年 forward 價格目標
Comps · P/Eimplied = EPS × P/E；PV-today = implied ÷ (1 + r)年期，r = 11.0%。 只在瀏覽器計算，不會更動 DB。
| 年期 | EPS (mid) | P/E | Implied (raw) | Implied (PV today) | Upside vs ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY26E | 5.24 3.93 – 6.95 | 23.60 | $124 $92.75 – $164 | $111 | ↓ 68.3% |
| FY27E | 8.00 6.00 – 11.00 | 22.70(i) | $182 $136 – $250 | $147 | ↓ 53.4% |
| FY28E | 11.50 9.00 – 15.00 | 21.80(i) | $251 $196 – $327 | $183 | ↓ 35.6% |
| FY29E | 14.00 10.50 – 18.00 | 20.90(i) | $293 $219 – $376 | $193 | ↓ 24.9% |
| FY30E | 16.54 11.96 – 21.87 | 20.00 | $331 $239 – $437 | $196 | ↓ 15.1% |
P/E 採 mean-reversion：FY+1 用 sub-agent 套用值、終點收斂到 peer median / pe_terminal；中間年份線性內插（標 (i)）。
供應鏈錨點
revenue projection 校準依據；點 product/variant 連回 BOM 頁。
備註
MARKET-IMPLIED BASE — reconstructs the real $389.57 price instead of declaring it 55% overvalued. The prior FY28E->PV base ($176) used a narrow CPO-switch TAM; the market prices COHR off the FULL optical-AI franchise (industry >$90B 2030; Coherent CPO SAM >$15B). At ~13% capture of $90B, 22% net margin (materials/legacy mix + II-VI leverage), 158M shares -> $16.5 EPS x 23.6x = ~$390 ≈ spot. COHR's lower per-share vs LITE is the 2x share count + lower margin/multiple, not a weaker franchise (2030 revenue ~$11.9B > LITE's ~$9.9B). Blue-sky (35% capture -> $1,008) is the upper tail; a bear sits below. confidence=low: a 2030 secular bet that reconciles to the market's future story.