valuations / 2481.TW
強茂 (Pan Jit)2481.TW
📅 2026-06-23📐 Comps · P/E🎯 mediumsource: weilab/valuate@2026-06-23 (comps_pe; src: winvest/Goodinfo + NotebookLM 股癌 EP671/672)存成 PDF
Implied share price
NT$176
NT$106 – NT$294
Reference price
NT$194
market at valuation time
Upside
↓ 9.0%
implied mid vs reference
假設 (assumptions)
pe_path
[32,30,28]
currency
TWD
eps_path
[{"eps":{"low":4.4,"mid":5.5,"high":7},"year":"CY27E"},{"eps":{"low":5.1,"mid":6.9,"high":9},"year":"CY28E"},{"eps":{"low":5.8,"mid":8.4,"high":11},"year":"CY29E"}]
pe_applied
32
pe_terminal
24
period_label
CY27E forward · 二工/功率半導體輪動 (comps P/E)
shares_outstanding_m
382
price_freshness
spot = live Yahoo NT$193.5 (stock_quotes 6/22 close was 176 — fast-moving). pe_peers = stale_estimate (TW power-discrete peers: 大中/茂達/力智/富鼎 trade ~20-40x in up-cycle).
eps_history
FY24A
2.4
FY25A
3.12
eps_estimate
low
4.4
mid
5.5
high
7
pe_peer_stats
p25
22
p75
40
median
28
rotation_drivers
source
NotebookLM 股癌 EP671/EP672
lead_time
99wk+ front-end lead times -> price-increase cycle
second_source
PURE 二工 play — direct Nexperia replacement; SiC MOSFET + Rectifier SECONDARY on every Rubin variant
rotation_position
early Tier-2/3; passives (Tier 1) crowded -> money rotating to power discretes
nexperia_eu_dechina
Nexperia sanction + EU de-China -> TW second-source qualification wave
forward_pe_reconciliation
note
spot NT$193.5 / CY27E base EPS NT$5.50 = 35.2x; applied 32x slightly below (stock has front-run the rotation ~9%). FY25A EPS 3.12 -> spot is ~62x trailing.
applied_fwd_pe
32
market_fwd_pe_at_spot
35.2
互動式 P/E 試算CY27E forward · 二工/功率半導體輪動 (comps P/E)
implied = EPS × P/E。只在瀏覽器計算，不會更動 DB。
情境
Peer 一鍵套用
試算 Implied Share Price
NT$176
↓ 9.0% vs reference NT$194
拆解
EPS 5.50 × P/E 32.00 = NT$176
未來 3 年 forward 價格目標
Comps · P/Eimplied = EPS × P/E；只在瀏覽器計算，不會更動 DB。
| 年期 | EPS (mid) | P/E | Implied (raw) | Upside vs ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CY27E | 5.50 4.40 – 7.00 | 32.00 | NT$176 NT$141 – NT$224 | ↓ 9.0% |
| CY28E | 6.90 5.10 – 9.00 | 30.00 | NT$207 NT$153 – NT$270 | ↑ 7.0% |
| CY29E | 8.40 5.80 – 11.00 | 28.00 | NT$235 NT$162 – NT$308 | ↑ 21.6% |
P/E path 由 sub-agent 自訂。
供應鏈錨點
revenue projection 校準依據；點 product/variant 連回 BOM 頁。
備註
**強茂 PANJIT — 最純的早期二工輪動標的（CY27E 為基準，今年已過半）。** 劇本（股癌 EP671/672）：Nexperia（安世）被制裁 + 歐盟去中化 → 台廠二工認證潮；99 週+ 交期 → 漲價循環。強茂是離散功率廠（二極體/整流器/MOSFET，跨入 SiC/GaN），在每個 Rubin variant 的 **SiC MOSFET(800V) 與 Rectifier 兩條線都是 secondary**。**財報**：FY25 EPS NT\$3.12（FY24 2.40，+30%）、營收 130.96億、股本 38.21億→3.82億股。**股價已在 re-rate**：NT\$135→176（6/22）→ ~193.5（live），兩週飆一大段。**算法**（CY27E 基準）：base EPS NT\$5.50 × 32x = **NT\$176**（spot 已超前 ~9%）。spot 對 CY27E ~35x、對 FY25 ~62x。**上檔**：forward 路徑 CY27E 176 → CY28E 207 → CY29E 235；blue（更大二工斬獲，EPS 7.0×42x）= ~294。**注意**：(1) 含輪動前提的倍數法；(2) 股價跑很快，spot 用 live Yahoo（DB 6/22 為 176）；(3) peer 倍數為估計。confidence medium。