valuations / COHR
CoherentCOHR
Implied share price
$1,008
$720 – $1,361
Reference price
$390
market at valuation time
Upside
↑ 158.7%
implied mid vs reference
假設 (assumptions)
cash_m
950
debt_m
6,000
currency
USD
eps_path
[{"eps":{"low":3.93,"mid":5.24,"high":6.95},"year":"FY26E"},{"eps":{"low":7,"mid":11,"high":16},"year":"FY27E"},{"eps":{"low":15,"mid":21,"high":28},"year":"FY28E"},{"eps":{"low":25,"mid":31,"high":40},"year":"FY29E"},{"eps":{"low":36,"mid":42,"high":50.4},"year":"FY30E"}]
pe_applied
24
pe_terminal
20
period_label
CY30E (blue-sky scenario)
cost_of_equity
11.00%
net_margin_pct
22
pv_today_mid_usd
664
discount_rate_for_pv
11.00%
shares_outstanding_m
165
optical_ai_tam_2030_usd_b
90
scenario
blue-sky: CPO/silicon-photonics dominance to 2030; same method as LITE blue-sky
eps_estimate
low
36
mid
42
high
50.4
pe_peer_stats
p25
22
p75
27
median
24
cohr_capture_pct
low
30
mid
35
high
42
revenue_2030_usd_m
low
27,000
mid
31,500
high
37,800
互動式 P/E 試算CY30E (blue-sky scenario)
implied = EPS × P/E。只在瀏覽器計算，不會更動 DB。
情境
Peer 一鍵套用
試算 Implied Share Price
$1,008
↑ 158.7% vs reference $390
拆解
EPS 42.00 × P/E 24.00 = $1,008
未來 5 年 forward 價格目標
Comps · P/Eimplied = EPS × P/E；PV-today = implied ÷ (1 + r)年期，r = 11.0%。 只在瀏覽器計算，不會更動 DB。
| 年期 | EPS (mid) | P/E | Implied (raw) | Implied (PV today) | Upside vs ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY26E | 5.24 3.93 – 6.95 | 24.00 | $126 $94.32 – $167 | $113 | ↓ 67.7% |
| FY27E | 11.00 7.00 – 16.00 | 23.00(i) | $253 $161 – $368 | $205 | ↓ 35.1% |
| FY28E | 21.00 15.00 – 28.00 | 22.00(i) | $462 $330 – $616 | $338 | ↑ 18.6% |
| FY29E | 31.00 25.00 – 40.00 | 21.00(i) | $651 $525 – $840 | $429 | ↑ 67.1% |
| FY30E | 42.00 36.00 – 50.40 | 20.00 | $840 $720 – $1,008 | $498 | ↑ 115.6% |
P/E 採 mean-reversion：FY+1 用 sub-agent 套用值、終點收斂到 peer median / pe_terminal；中間年份線性內插（標 (i)）。
供應鏈錨點
revenue projection 校準依據；點 product/variant 連回 BOM 頁。
備註
BLUE-SKY / what-would-have-to-be-true scenario — NOT a base case (base comps FY28E-PV mid ~$176). Same chain as the LITE blue-sky: industry optical AI TAM >$90B 2030 (source 1); COHR captures 30/35/42% as a dominant datacom-transceiver + EEL/DFB + CPO optical-engine supplier; 22% net margin (below LITE's 27% on materials/legacy mix + II-VI leverage); ~165M shares -> CY30E EPS $36/$42/$50; exit P/E 20/24/27x -> $720/$1,008/$1,361. PV-today mid ~$664 (disc 11% over ~4y). COHR lands ~3x below LITE's blue-sky purely on 2x share count + lower margin/multiple, NOT a weaker CPO story (by 2030 revenue COHR is the bigger optical franchise). What breaks it: CPO slips past 2030, capture lost to Lumentum/Broadcom, or margin caps below 22%. confidence=rumor.