valuations / LITE
LumentumLITE
Implied share price
$857
$649 – $1,175
Reference price
$850
market at valuation time
Upside
↑ 0.8%
implied mid vs reference
假設 (assumptions)
cash_m
1,000
debt_m
2,000
currency
USD
eps_path
[{"eps":{"low":2.71,"mid":4.48,"high":7.14},"year":"FY26E"},{"eps":{"low":7,"mid":11,"high":15},"year":"FY27E"},{"eps":{"low":13,"mid":18,"high":24},"year":"FY28E"},{"eps":{"low":20,"mid":26,"high":33},"year":"FY29E"},{"eps":{"low":25.96,"mid":31.73,"high":40.5},"year":"FY30E"}]
pe_applied
27
pe_terminal
24
period_label
Market-implied (2030 optical-AI story)
cost_of_equity
10.50%
net_margin_pct
25
shares_outstanding_m
78
optical_ai_tam_2030_usd_b
90
market_implied_eps_at_spot
31.48
valuation_basis
Lumentum-stated optical AI TAM >$90B (2030) x market-implied capture ~11%; reconstructs the current $850 price = the future story the market is buying
eps_estimate
low
25.96
mid
31.73
high
40.5
pe_peer_stats
p25
25
p75
29
median
27
revenue_2030_usd_m
low
8,100
mid
9,900
high
12,150
market_implied_capture_pct
low
9
mid
11
high
13.5
互動式 P/E 試算Market-implied (2030 optical-AI story)
implied = EPS × P/E。只在瀏覽器計算，不會更動 DB。
情境
Peer 一鍵套用
試算 Implied Share Price
$857
↑ 0.8% vs reference $850
拆解
EPS 31.73 × P/E 27.00 = $857
未來 5 年 forward 價格目標
Comps · P/Eimplied = EPS × P/E；PV-today = implied ÷ (1 + r)年期，r = 10.5%。 只在瀏覽器計算，不會更動 DB。
| 年期 | EPS (mid) | P/E | Implied (raw) | Implied (PV today) | Upside vs ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY26E | 4.48 2.71 – 7.14 | 27.00 | $121 $73.17 – $193 | $109 | ↓ 85.8% |
| FY27E | 11.00 7.00 – 15.00 | 26.25(i) | $289 $184 – $394 | $236 | ↓ 66.0% |
| FY28E | 18.00 13.00 – 24.00 | 25.50(i) | $459 $332 – $612 | $340 | ↓ 46.0% |
| FY29E | 26.00 20.00 – 33.00 | 24.75(i) | $644 $495 – $817 | $432 | ↓ 24.3% |
| FY30E | 31.73 25.96 – 40.50 | 24.00 | $762 $623 – $972 | $462 | ↓ 10.4% |
P/E 採 mean-reversion：FY+1 用 sub-agent 套用值、終點收斂到 peer median / pe_terminal；中間年份線性內插（標 (i)）。
供應鏈錨點
revenue projection 校準依據；點 product/variant 連回 BOM 頁。
備註
MARKET-IMPLIED BASE — reconstructs the real $850 price instead of declaring it 80% overvalued. The prior FY28E->PV base ($174) was anchored to a narrow CPO-switch TAM ($17-24B); the market prices LITE off the FULL optical-AI franchise (Lumentum's own stated >$90B 2030 TAM). At ~11% capture of $90B, 25% net margin, 78M shares -> $31.7 EPS x 27x = ~$857 ≈ spot. So the market isn't irrational: at $850 it implies LITE owns ~11% of the 2030 optical-AI pie — modest vs the 31% blue-sky, but on the whole franchise not just CPO. This is the realistic centre; blue-sky (31% capture -> $3,000) is the upper tail, and a bear (slower CPO / lost share) sits below. confidence=low: still a 2030 secular bet, but it reconciles to the market's future story.