valuations / ON
onsemi (ON Semiconductor)ON
Implied share price
$117
$59.24 – $131
Reference price
$122
market at valuation time
Upside
↓ 3.6%
implied mid vs reference
假設 (assumptions)
wacc
9.65%
cash_m
2,500
debt_m
3,005
currency
USD
terminal_g
3.00%
pe_terminal
18
period_label
Market-implied · 800V SiC 純度王 (priced-for-perfection)
forecast_path
[{"eps":3.98,"year":"CY26E","fcf_usd_m":1184,"ebitda_usd_m":2619,"revenue_usd_m":7078},{"eps":6.2,"year":"CY27E","fcf_usd_m":1933,"ebitda_usd_m":3896,"revenue_usd_m":9060},{"eps":7.93,"year":"CY28E","fcf_usd_m":2644,"ebitda_usd_m":4943,"revenue_usd_m":11234},{"eps":8.96,"year":"CY29E","fcf_usd_m":3124,"ebitda_usd_m":5604,"revenue_usd_m":13032},{"eps":9.76,"year":"CY30E","fcf_usd_m":3512,"ebitda_usd_m":6130,"revenue_usd_m":14596}]
pe_applied_fwd
26
revenue_cagr_5y
19.50%
growth_years_stage2
3
revenue_cagr_stage2
5.50%
shares_outstanding_m
423
ebitda_margin_terminal
39.50%
market_implied_capture_pct
125.8
market_implied_eps_at_spot
4.68
valuation_basis
Two-stage DCF (CY26E-CY33E explicit, single WACC 9.65%, beta 1.35). Base year FY24 $7,082M; CY25E = FY25 ACTUAL trough $5,995M. The HEADLINE BASE is the market-implied AGGRESSIVE case that reconstructs ~spot (per valuate discipline): onsemi ~3x revenue from the 2025 trough to ~$15B (2030) / ~$18B (2033) at structural ~50% gross margin, driven by AI-800V SiC (AI DC revenue doubling YoY) + EV recovery. It has NO margin of safety — a measured recovery (no super-cycle) is the BEAR at $59 (-51%). De-risked-compounder upside (WACC->8.9%) ~$144; deep-bear (shortage fails) ~$29. onsemi is the purest AI-SiC play and the source of the $50-100k/1MW-rack content figure.
ai_800v_sizing
note
onsemi is the PUREST AI-800V SiC pure-play; its self-reported content/TAM anchored the STM re-size.
ai_dc_growth
doubling YoY 2025 & guided 2026
sic_customers
600
onsemi_ai_dc_rev_2025_usd_m
250
ai_800v_power_semi_tam_2030_usd_b
2.6
onsemi_power_semi_per_1mw_rack_usd_k
[50,100]
scenario_layers
base
{"price":117.18,"thesis":"market-implied: aggressive AI-SiC ramp ~3x revenue from trough, structural ~50% GM; reconstructs ~spot, NO margin of safety","confidence":"low"}
bear
{"price":59.24,"thesis":"MEASURED recovery, no super-cycle; onsemi to ~$9.5B rev, mid-40s GM — the realistic floor, -51% vs spot","confidence":"medium"}
blue_sky
{"price":131.16,"thesis":"aggressive + GM peak 54% + terminal g 3.5%","confidence":"rumor"}
deep_bear
{"price":29.35,"thesis":"shortage fails / SiC capacity floods / auto+industrial stays soft","confidence":"low"}
de_risked_compounder
{"price":143.79,"thesis":"same aggressive ramp but market re-rates discount rate down (beta 1.35->1.15, WACC ->8.9%)","confidence":"rumor"}
shortage_window
end_year
CY28E
start_year
CY26E
peak_gross_margin
53.00%
normalized_gross_margin
48.50%
未來 5 年 forward 價格目標
DCFimplied = EPS × P/E；PV-today = implied ÷ (1 + r)年期，r = 9.7%。 只在瀏覽器計算，不會更動 DB。
| 年期 | EPS (mid) | P/E | Implied (raw) | Implied (PV today) | Upside vs ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CY26E | 3.98 3.98 – 3.98 | 26.00 | $103 $103 – $103 | $94.37 | ↓ 14.9% |
| CY27E | 6.20 6.20 – 6.20 | 24.00(i) | $149 $149 – $149 | $124 | ↑ 22.3% |
| CY28E | 7.93 7.93 – 7.93 | 22.00(i) | $174 $174 – $174 | $132 | ↑ 43.4% |
| CY29E | 8.96 8.96 – 8.96 | 20.00(i) | $179 $179 – $179 | $124 | ↑ 47.3% |
| CY30E | 9.76 9.76 – 9.76 | 18.00 | $176 $176 – $176 | $111 | ↑ 44.4% |
P/E 採 mean-reversion：FY+1 用 sub-agent 套用值、終點收斂到 peer median / pe_terminal；中間年份線性內插（標 (i)）。
敏感度：WACC × Terminal g
中心格 = base case；其他格為對應軸值組合下的 implied share price。
| WACC \ g | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | 130.98 | 139.63 | 149.96 |
| 9.7% | 111.25 | 117.2 | 124.13 |
| 10.7% | 96.41 | 100.69 | 105.57 |
供應鏈錨點
revenue projection 校準依據；點 product/variant 連回 BOM 頁。
備註
**onsemi = 800V SiC 純度王 (priced-for-perfection)** — onsemi 是這整個劇本最純的標的：\$50–100k/1MW 機櫃內容、AI DC 營收 2025/2026 連兩年 YoY 翻倍、600+ SiC 客戶、\$2.6B 2030 TAM —— 全是它自己的數字（也是我幫 STM 重估的依據）。FY25 為深谷（營收 \$5,995M −15.3%、GAAP 淨利因重組崩到 \$121M）。**關鍵發現** — 紀律 DCF（WACC 9.65%、beta 1.35）每一層都低於現價 \$121.62，連結構性 blue-sky 也只 ~\$88。依 market-implied 紀律「不質疑市場、重建現價在買什麼」：**market-implied base = 把 onsemi 從谷底 ~3 倍營收做到 2033 ~\$18B、結構性 ~50% 毛利的激進情境，才重建出 ~spot（\$117，−4%）**。但這**沒有安全邊際**：若只是溫和復甦（無超級循環）→ bear \$59（−51%）。再上檔靠折現率下修（compounder de-rate，WACC→8.9%）~\$144；崩盤（缺貨破局）~\$29。**相對判斷** — 對比 STM（base −15% 且用的是溫和假設），onsemi 內含的期待高得多，現價只在「完整激進 AI-SiC ramp 成真」時站得住；beta 更高、需要更高信念。Confidence：headline base **low**（priced for perfection）、bear medium、blue/compounder rumor。歷史數取自 10-K（已核），但前瞻 ramp 為激進估計。⚠️ 現價 \$121.62 你先前說可能要更正 —— 若給我正確值我重錨。來源：onsemi FY24/FY25 10-K、ST/onsemi 800VDC、techinvestments.io。