valuations / ON
onsemi (ON Semiconductor)ON
📅 2026-06-23📐 Comps · P/E🎯 lowsource: weilab/valuate@2026-06-23 (comps_pe CY27E supersede; src: NotebookLM 股癌 EP671/672)存成 PDF
Implied share price
$185
$86.46 – $248
Reference price
$132
market at valuation time
Upside
↑ 40.3%
implied mid vs reference
假設 (assumptions)
cash_m
2,500
debt_m
3,005
pe_path
[28,30,28]
currency
USD
eps_path
[{"eps":{"low":3.93,"mid":6.59,"high":7.29},"year":"CY27E"},{"eps":{"low":4.58,"mid":8.56,"high":9.28},"year":"CY28E"},{"eps":{"low":4.82,"mid":9.76,"high":10.59},"year":"CY29E"}]
pe_applied
28
pe_terminal
22
period_label
CY27E forward · 800V SiC 純度王輪動 (comps P/E)
cost_of_equity
9.50%
shares_outstanding_m
423
price_freshness
spot $131.55 = live Yahoo (corrected from stale DB $121.62). pe_peers = stale_estimate; onsemi gets a premium-to-median multiple as the purest AI-SiC play + rotation leader.
eps_estimate
low
3.93
mid
6.59
high
7.29
pe_peer_stats
p25
20
p75
33
median
24
rotation_drivers
purity
purest AI-800V SiC pure-play; $50-100k power-semi/1MW rack is onsemi's own figure
source
NotebookLM 股癌 EP671/EP672
lead_time
99wk+ front-end lead times -> price-increase cycle; 800V ~5% penetration 2027 = icebreaker
leadership
US-listed IDM that LEADS the rotation (股癌: 上週末全部射出去)
nexperia_eu_dechina
Nexperia sanction + EU de-China -> share to non-China IDMs
forward_pe_reconciliation
note
spot $131.55 / CY27E base EPS $6.59 = 20.0x -> reasonable once past the FY25 trough; applied 28x (pure-play premium) gives +40%. No longer 'priced for perfection' on CY27E.
applied_fwd_pe
28
market_fwd_pe_at_spot
20
互動式 P/E 試算CY27E forward · 800V SiC 純度王輪動 (comps P/E)
implied = EPS × P/E。只在瀏覽器計算，不會更動 DB。
情境
Peer 一鍵套用
試算 Implied Share Price
$185
↑ 40.3% vs reference $132
拆解
EPS 6.59 × P/E 28.00 = $185
未來 3 年 forward 價格目標
Comps · P/Eimplied = EPS × P/E；PV-today = implied ÷ (1 + r)年期，r = 9.5%。 只在瀏覽器計算，不會更動 DB。
| 年期 | EPS (mid) | P/E | Implied (raw) | Implied (PV today) | Upside vs ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CY27E | 6.59 3.93 – 7.29 | 28.00 | $185 $110 – $204 | $169 | ↑ 40.3% |
| CY28E | 8.56 4.58 – 9.28 | 30.00 | $257 $137 – $278 | $214 | ↑ 95.2% |
| CY29E | 9.76 4.82 – 10.59 | 28.00 | $273 $135 – $297 | $208 | ↑ 107.7% |
P/E path 由 sub-agent 自訂。
供應鏈錨點
revenue projection 校準依據；點 product/variant 連回 BOM 頁。
備註
**CY27E 重錨 + 修正現價（supersede CY26E 版）。** 今年已過半 → 改用 CY27E（CY26E 嚴重低估 onsemi，因 FY26 仍是谷底復甦年）；現價更正為 live \$131.55（DB \$121.62 為 stale）。**關鍵**：以 CY27E 獲利看，onsemi 在 \$131.55 是 **20.0x**（base EPS \$6.59）—— 不再是「priced for perfection」。套 28x（純度王溢價）→ mid **\$184.52（+40.3% vs spot）**，這是 DCF 折掉的輪動上檔。forward 路徑（pe_path 28→30→28）：CY27E ~\$185 → CY28E ~\$257 → CY29E ~\$273；輪動高標 blue EPS 7.29×34x ≈ \$248。**劇本**：US IDM 領頭、Nexperia 制裁 + 歐盟去中化、99 週+ 交期→漲價、800V 明年 ~5% 滲透率「破冰船」、最純 AI-SiC play。confidence low（CY27E base 仍需谷底強復甦）。