companies / TWSE
台積電
Sole foundry for Rubin (N3P process) and CoWoS-L packaging.
近 30 天股價
最新估值
Foundry-peer EV/EBITDA comps. Peer set: UMC (2303.TW, ~9.2x), GFS (~9.6x), SMIC (0981.HK, ~13.7x), Samsung (005930.KS, ~9.6x conglomerate-level — foundry slice ~22x but consolidated as ~10x; kept with caveat). Intel excluded (IFS loss-making). Ex-Samsung clean median 9.6x; applied **15.0x** to reflect TSMC quasi-monopoly on leading-edge logic + CoWoS rationing — well above peer median, in line with market-implied multiple at spot TWD 2,255. CY26E EBITDA mid TWD 3,123B (~USD 95B), built top-down: revenue CAGR FY25→FY28 ≈ 21.5% on HPC mix expansion (51% → 70%) anchored to weilab supply-chain forecasts for Rubin nvl72/nvl144-cpx/nvl576, AMD MI450/MI455x, Google TPU v7p/v8i/v8t. EBITDA margin 67–68.5%, flattening on Fab 21 (Arizona) + Kumamoto D&A drag. Headline implied MID = TWD 1,850 → **-18% vs spot 2,255**. Honest comps read for a quasi-monopoly: any reasonable foundry-peer multiple under-prices TSMC. HIGH case (18x × high EBITDA) ≈ TWD 2,375 covers spot. Pair this with the same-day DCF if generated. xlsx: data/valuations/2026-05-24-2330-tw-2.xlsx (local-only, not in git). Peer spots: Samsung 005930.KS fresh from weilab stock_quotes 2026-05-22; UMC/GFS/SMIC flagged stale_estimate.
看歷史估值 →在 BOM 上的位置
- 1°N1X SoC — Blackwell GPU chiplet
- secondaryN1X SoC — MediaTek CPU/IO chiplet
- secondaryN1X SoC — MediaTek CPU/IO chiplet
- 1°N1X SoC — Blackwell GPU chiplet
- 1°Rubin GPU die· 99%
- 1°CoWoS-L interposer· 99%
- 1°Vera CPU die· 99%
- 1°Rubin CPX GPU die· 99%
- 1°CoWoS-L interposer· 99%
- 1°Vera CPU die· 99%
- 1°Rubin Ultra GPU die· 99%
- 1°CoWoS-L interposer· 99%
- 1°Vera CPU die· 99%
- 1°MI450 GPU die· 99%
- 1°EPYC Venice CPU· 99%
- 1°CoWoS-L 3.5D interposer· 99%
- 1°MI455X GPU die· 99%
- 1°EPYC Venice CPU· 99%
- 1°CoWoS-L 3.5D interposer· 99%
- foundryGPU compute die· 99%
- 1°CoWoS-S· 99%
- foundryGPU compute die· 99%
- foundryI/O die· 99%
- 1°CoWoS-S· 99%
- foundryCompute die· 99%
- 1°CoWoS-S / EMIB· 99%
題材歸屬
- AI PC — NVIDIA 用 RTX Spark / N1X 正式踏進 PC（MediaTek 2454 + TSMC 2330）hotPrimary
TSMC 台積電 — N1X 以 3nm 投片；AI PC SoC（N1X / Ryzen AI / Snapdragon X）共同代工方
- TGV 製程設備鏈 — 8 大步驟拆解，雷射 + 蝕刻是良率瓶頸最厚的商機hotPrimary
CoPoS 主導者；2026-02 開始送設備到 R&D、2026-06 VisEra pilot line、2028-29 量產；NVIDIA + AMD 已預訂；Chiayi AP7 為 hub
- TGV 玻璃基板題材 — Intel GCS 與 TSMC CoPoS 兩條獨立路線watchPrimary
TSMC — CoPoS 主導者，2026-02 開始送設備到 R&D、2026-06 VisEra pilot line、2028-29 量產，NVIDIA + AMD 確認客戶；Chiayi 為 hub 整合 CoPoS / SoIC / WMCM
財報 highlight
| 期別 | Revenue (USD) | EPS | 毛利率 | YoY | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | $1134.10B | — | 61.9% | +35.10% | yahoo-finance2 |
| 2025Q4 | $1046.09B | — | — | — | yahoo-finance2 |
| 2025Q3 | $989.92B | — | — | — | yahoo-finance2 |
| 2025Q2 | $933.79B | — | — | — | yahoo-finance2 |
競爭對手
相關公司
在 BOM 上跟該公司同列出現的廠商 — 可能是同層 supplier、補位 source、或客戶端，不一定是競爭關係。
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