weilab — supply-chain research lab

(primary)

假設 (assumptions)

cash_m

2,127,000

debt_m

940,000

currency

TWD

eps_path

[{"eps":{"low":70.1,"mid":78.08,"high":89.75},"year":"CY26E"},{"eps":{"low":82.72,"mid":92.13,"high":105.91},"year":"CY27E"},{"eps":{"low":97.61,"mid":108.71,"high":124.97},"year":"CY28E"}]

pe_applied

25.53

pe_terminal

period_label

CY26E

revenue_cagr_5y

18.00%

shares_outstanding_m

25,930.4

ebitda_margin_terminal

55.00%

hbm_premium_note

Applied P/E of 25.53x = peer median 19.64x × (1+30% premium). Premium reflects: (a) CoWoS-L advanced packaging capacity monopoly through 2027 H2 (Samsung/Intel cannot replicate); (b) N2 process node ~1-year lead vs Samsung Foundry SF2 and Intel 18A; (c) demonstrated pricing power — CoWoS-L 2026 wafer pricing up ~20% YoY per TSMC IR commentary. Market is paying ~47% premium (27.5/19.64-1), which exceeds the defensible 30% — implies further upside requires either applied multiple > 30x (TSM-ADR style 35x territory) or EPS beat above TWD 90.

pe_terminal_rationale

Compresses from 25.53x applied (which is peer median 19.64x × 1.30 premium) to 22.0x by FY28 — reflecting partial erosion of CoWoS-L monopoly premium as Samsung/Intel ramp competing advanced packaging through 2027-2028 and N2 process lead narrows. NOT full compression to peer median (19.64x) because N2P/N1.4 transition + 3D IC moat persists. Mean-reversion interpolation: FY+1=25.53, FY+2=23.77 (i), FY+3=22.00.

pe_peers

GFS

19.52

INTC

25.77

0981.HK

21.39

2303.TW

11.8

000660.KS

17.65

005930.KS

19.76

eps_estimate

low

70.1

mid

78.08

high

89.75

pe_peer_stats

p25

18.12

p75

20.98

median

19.64

spot_price_source

GFS

stale_estimate

INTC

weilab.stock_quotes@2026-05-22

0981.HK

stale_estimate

2303.TW

stale_estimate

2330.TW

weilab.stock_quotes@2026-05-22

000660.KS

weilab.stock_quotes@2026-05-22

005930.KS

weilab.stock_quotes@2026-05-22

forward_pe_reconciliation

note_md

Top-down EPS (TWD 78.08) is within -4.78% of market-implied EPS (TWD 82.00 at consensus 27.5x Fwd P/E) — well inside the ±20% tolerance band. Headline anchors to top-down × peer-relative applied P/E. The fact that market is paying ~27.5x while peer-relative-with-premium only justifies ~25.5x is the key finding: TSMC monopoly premium is already priced in.

anchor_choice

top_down

market_fwd_pe

27.5

divergence_pct

-4.78

top_down_eps_mid

78.08

market_implied_eps

年期	EPS (mid)	P/E	Implied (raw)	Upside vs ref
CY26E	78.08 70.10 – 89.75	25.53	NT$1,993 NT$1,790 – NT$2,291	↓ 11.6%
CY27E	92.13 82.72 – 105.91	23.77(i)	NT$2,189 NT$1,966 – NT$2,517	↓ 2.9%
CY28E	108.71 97.61 – 124.97	22.00	NT$2,392 NT$2,147 – NT$2,749	↑ 6.1%

年期

EPS (mid)

P/E

Implied (raw)

Upside vs ref

CY26E

78.08

70.10 – 89.75

25.53

NT$1,993

NT$1,790 – NT$2,291

↓ 11.6%

CY27E

92.13

82.72 – 105.91

23.77(i)

NT$2,189

NT$1,966 – NT$2,517

↓ 2.9%

CY28E

108.71

97.61 – 124.97

22.00

NT$2,392

NT$2,147 – NT$2,749

↑ 6.1%

供應鏈錨點

revenue projection 校準依據；點 product/variant 連回 BOM 頁。

mi400 / mi450· MI450 GPU die99%(primary)· 50,000 套 @ 2026 H2
mi400 / mi455x· MI455X GPU die99%(primary)· 15,000 套 @ 2027 H1
mi400 / mi450· EPYC Venice CPU die99%(primary)
mi400 / mi450· CoWoS-L 3.5D interposer99%(primary)
mi400 / mi455x· EPYC Venice CPU die99%(primary)
mi400 / mi455x· CoWoS-L 3.5D interposer99%(primary)
rubin / nvl72· Rubin GPU die99%(primary)· 2,500 套 @ 2026 H2
rubin / nvl72· Rubin GPU die99%(primary)· 12,000 套 @ 2027 FY
rubin / nvl72· CoWoS-L interposer99%

備註

[audit 2026-05-24] manual SQL patch: added eps_path (CY27E/CY28E rolled at 18% revenue_cagr_5y) + pe_terminal=22.0 (partial compression from 25.53x toward peer median 19.64x). No sub-agent re-run; existing analysis preserved. TSMC peer-relative Fwd P/E CY26E with +30% premium for CoWoS-L capacity monopoly and N2 process lead. Top-down EPS (TWD 78.08) reconciles within -4.8% of market-implied EPS (TWD 82.0 at consensus 27.5x), so headline anchors to top-down per discipline rule. Mid implied TWD 1,993 is ~-11.6% vs TWD 2,255 spot — market is pricing TSMC at ~47% premium to peer median, well above the 30% defensible premium. TSMC is the foundry multiple-setter; market enthusiasm is already in the price.